These 4 Stock Charts Say You Should Worry About a Market Crash

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Even investors who only care about the fundamentals won’t be shocked to learn a fresh round of technical analysis of stock charts suggests a bigger market crash is now likely. While a short-term market crash clearly isn’t as dire as a full-blown bear market, a major pullback is still something best avoided — if possible — no matter what a trader’s timeframe is.

With that as the backdrop, there are four specific red flags we now see when we apply some common technical analysis to stock charts (well… index charts, technically).

Here’s a closer look at those four omens telling us stocks have passed the point of no return and now must suffer a market crash in order to hit bottom and begin the recovery process.

The S&P 500 Has Broken Under a Major Long-Term Support Level

Encompassing about 85% of the entire market (by market cap) the S&P 500 is easily the most meaningful and relevant of all the stock charts worth watching. So, were it break under a key floor with no other support nearby, it would bode poorly for the broad market.

As it turns out, that’s exactly what happened on Wednesday. Thanks to Wednesday’s stumble, the S&P 500 has fallen below a support line that has kept the index moving higher since late-2012.

S&P 500 Stock Charts

Given the length of time this floor has been in place and the way it has successfully spurred rebounds every time it was tested, it wouldn’t be difficult to conclude this was more than the beginning of a short-term market crash — this shift looks like the beginning of a bear market. It’s not apt to be that serious, however. Earnings are still on the rise. The S&P 500’s growth simply got too far ahead of earnings. A decent pullback will right-size the market’s overall valuation.

Breadth and Depth Has Turned Decidedly Bearish

One of the chief criticisms the bulls have offered regarding the recent weakness from the market is its lack of volume. If the selling effort is to last, it’s going to need to grow its number of participants. And truth be told, the bulls making this argument are correct … mostly. But, there’s a key detail they’re omitting.

While it’s not a technical analysis idea often used when analyzing stock charts, a closer look at the recent details indicates the selling volume has been dwarfing the buying volume since early September; there are a lot more sellers than buyers at this time.

Take a look at the NASDAQ’s up-volume and down-volume chart. While the total volume of late has been right in line with the norm, the composite’s bearish volume trend now stands about 20% greater than the bullish volume trend. Moreover, the current trends of the two data sets say the divergence is going to widen sharply from here.

NASDAQ Market Crash

The NYSE’s breadth and depth charts paint the same picture. Again, it doesn’t mean we’re at the beginning of a new bear market. It’s just a warning of a much-needed (and likely short-lived) market crash.

The Russell 2000 Momentum Has Shifted for the Worse

The Russell 2000 Index may be the least watched of all the stock charts, but it’s just as important as any other chart. In fact, it may be even more important than others, as the more aggressive names that make up the Russell 2000 tend to lead the market … regardless of direction.

Whatever the case, technical analysis of the Russell 2000 after this week’s selloff also suggests the overall market is starting market crash that’s inescapable. How so? After making its first lower high in months with the early September peak of 1183.85, the Russell 2000 has now logged its first major lower low in nearly two years. Though there’s still something of a floor around 1083 (where the index is currently dancing), the bear attack on that floor is much stronger than it has been with prior attacks.

Russell 2000 Bear Market

The VXN is Off and Running

Last but not least, the NASDAQ Composite has broken under its 100-day moving average line at the same time the NASDAQ Volatility Index (VXN) has started an earnest effort to retest a long-term ceiling around 23.0. Though this particular event didn’t kick-start a bear market the last time it happened in April — and isn’t likely to this time either — that prior instance did mark something of a minor market crash.

NASDAQ VXN Technical Analysis

Most technical analysis of stock charts doesn’t include consideration of volatility indexes like the VXN. There’s a lot of great information to be gleaned here, however, like when the true capitulatory bottom may be met. Though the VXN may not hit the level again exactly, history has shown many of the NASDAQ’s major, trade-worthy bottoms have been made only when the VXN reaches or exceeds the 21.0 level. A brush of the 23.0 line would be even more meaningful.

We’re nowhere near those two possible VXN ceilings right now, but the action in the VXN does suggest a dip in the near future.

Bottom Line for Current Stock Charts

There’s never a guarantee of how a single stock — or the entire market — will move tomorrow. But trading is about reading the clues and weighing the odds. Unbiased technical analysis of all the major stock charts says the market has most likely gotten itself into a pullback that now has to fully play out with more of a correction than we’ve seen thus far.

It may not be a true bear market, but it’s certainly nothing that’s going to go unnoticed by any type of trader or investor.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/10/stock-charts-market-crash/.

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