Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock: Separating Fact from Fiction

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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has become one of the market’s most polarizing stocks, and with good reason. It’s a chip maker with relatively new products in the computer processing and graphics processing markets, and that’s inherently confusing to the lay, “Buy What You Know” investor. And AMD stock has been one of the market’s best performers over the last year despite zero profits during that time.

Thus, many analysts assume it’s due (or overdue) for a comeuppance, with Barclays emerging as the latest naysayer. And the Nervous Nellies have made a dent in AMD in recent days, knocking the stock back about 6% in the last week. Is it the beginning of an extended pullback in AMD stock, as Barclays forecast? Perhaps. But the clouds hovering over AMD aren’t as ominous as some might have you believe.

AMD Negatives Overstated

For instance, one of the main arguments against AMD’s continued uptick is its lack of profits. Indeed, the company hasn’t been in the black since 2011, reporting a loss of $0.14 per share in 2016 and $0.04 per share in the first quarter. However, that narrative is expected to change: analysts estimate the company will earn $0.07 per share this year and $0.29 per share in 2018. Barring a huge miss, that should help assuage some of the value hawks out for AMD’s blood.

Another concern is that the headway Advanced Micro Devices made in the computer processor (CPU) market last quarter with the launch of its Ryzen processor isn’t sustainable. Barclays believes Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), which has a new CPU of its own in the works, could steal that lost market share right back.

But here’s the thing: it’s unclear when Intel’s eighth-generation, 14-nanometer CPU will launch. “Later this year” is the only crumb of information the company has given so far. That will give AMD another quarter or two to build momentum, and perhaps further eat away at Intel’s market share. Because of this, I don’t think a 35% decline in AMD stock (as Barclays forecast) is imminent.

And then there’s this: AMD stock was already given up for dead when it crashed hard in May, plummeting 26% in a matter of a week on the heels of a first-quarter earnings miss. It has since recovered most of those losses, and has traded above its 50-day moving average for a month despite its usual peaks and valleys.

If the company falls short of earnings estimates again next week (it will report second-quarter results on July 25, according to its website), that could prompt another quick-and-dirty crash, and perhaps cast some doubts about its return to profitability this year. For now, though, AMD is well clear of its one-month support level ($12.15) and has risen more than 12% in the last month. On Wall Street, trends tend to last longer than most people expect.

Don’t Count Out AMD Stock Just Yet

Analysts have been trying to throw cold water on AMD’s run for months, and many wrote it off after it plunged 16% in May. But tales of the stock’s demise were premature then, and they may be premature now.

If you step back and look at the growth and the rollout of new products, including its much-hyped Epyc server chip, there’s still a lot to like about Advanced Micro Devices. Does that mean AMD stock will pop 150% over the next 12 months the way it did in the previous 12 months? Most likely not.

But it still has the makings of a strong growth stock, especially in this bull market. Unlike Barclays, I wouldn’t count AMD out just yet.

As of this writing, Chris Fraley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/07/advanced-micro-devices-inc-amd-stock-separating-fact-from-fiction/.

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