GoPro Inc Could See a Brief 35% Upside, Here’s When to Buy and Sell

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GPRO stock - GoPro Inc Could See a Brief 35% Upside, Here’s When to Buy and Sell

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I am not a fan of GoPro Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRO) as a company or as a stock to invest in. GPRO stock followed the typical overhyped unicorn IPO path. GPRO stock soared on its open to $50 per share, was volatile for a bit, before shooting up to $100 within about three months of the IPO.

The pattern was classic parabolic rise, so it shouldn’t have surprised anyone that the same would happen on the down side. It just took a bit longer than one might have expected.

Then GRPO stock started cratering because GPRO actually had to reveal financial statements and earnings reports. Suddenly investors learned that this nifty little device was really only good for certain niche markets. I personally always felt is was a fad without broad appeal.

I have since used a few GoPro products. I have never been impressed. Only recently did GoPro even come up with a digital screen on the back to operate the camera a bit more easily.

That it is taking this long to amp up its capabilities has been unimpressive. Finally, while the picture is pretty good on the latest models, the sound/microphones are still terrible, particularly outdoors.

GPRO stock did get back to profitability this past quarter, but only because it cut expenses pretty drastically. Its Q4 guidance is coming in light.

I do not see how GPRO ultimately survives as a company, because its financial position is weakening. I’ll get back to that shortly.

For now, however, GPRO stock may make for a solid trade. If you look at the chart below, courtesy of StockCharts.com, you’ll note GPRO stock collapsed from about $10.70 to 8.00. Just like a parabola, one might expect a quick recovery given the rapidity of the decline.

Thus, entering here at around $8.65 suggests several possible exit points. First, the 200-day moving average is at $8.96. We would expect some resistance there.

In addition, the 50-week moving average is also at $8.96. So there’s about 4% possible upside to that point and you might want to exit 25% of your position there.

If GPRO stock breaks out of that resistance, then the next possible exit would be $9.85, at the 50-day moving average. You might want to cut another 25% loose there. After that, we could see up to $11.75 per share.

On the downside, I suggest a stop loss around $7.95, or about 8%.

Now, back to GPRO stock in terms of financials. In many cases, these IPO unicorns are out of control as far as valuation. However, after they fall back to earth, there are opportunities for trading because they often have a lot of that IPO cash still on the balance sheet, and no or very little debt.

That’s not the case with here. The GPRO stock price reflects the company’s fortunes. Its cash position has been declining. It had $474 million in the bank at the end of 2015, but just one year later it was at $227 million. That balance is now down to $200 million, and that includes taking on $125 million in debt in Q2. That debt is insanely expensive, $4.6 million per quarter, or over $18 million annually or 15%!

At this point, GPRO is in trouble, and hence the reason I suggest only getting involved in a trade. Mind you, if the trade does push GPRO stock over $10, once you sell out, consider shorting.

Lawrence Meyers is the CEO of PDL Capital, a specialty lender focusing on consumer finance and is the Manager of The Liberty Portfolio at www.thelibertyportfolio.com. He does not own any stock mentioned. He has 22 years’ experience in the stock market, and has written more than 1,600 articles on investing. Lawrence Meyers can be reached at TheLibertyPortfolio@gmail.com.

 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/11/gpro-stock-brief-upside/.

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