Take Advantage of this Irrational Weakness in JD.Com Inc Stock

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JD stock - Take Advantage of this Irrational Weakness in JD.Com Inc Stock

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In a move that didn’t make much sense to me at all, Chinese retail behemoth JD.Com Inc(ADR) (NASDAQ:JD) sold off in early Thursday trade on what were very good numbers from its peer Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA). At its low, JD stock had sunk to below $47 (it had closed at $49 and change the prior day).

JD has rebounded some, but its still in the red as of this writing while the broader indices have turned into positive territory. Again, that doesn’t make sense. After digging through Alibaba’s quarterly numbers, I didn’t find any reason to be bearish on JD. But I did find a ton of reasons to be even more bullish.

Consequently, I think any weakness in JD stock as a result of Alibaba’s numbers should be viewed as a buying opportunity. JD is about a month away from announcing what I think will be a blowout earnings report.

Alibaba’s Quarter Underscores Secular Growth Trend for JD

If you ask someone why Alibaba stock sunk after earnings, they will point to the obvious fact that the Chinese e-commerce giant missed earnings estimates.

That is true, and when you are a hyper-growth company trading at a hyper-rich valuation, you don’t really have room to miss estimates. But in BABA’s case, the earnings miss wasn’t the result of a deteriorating growth story. Indeed, it was the opposite. Alibaba missed earnings because its long-term growth runway is getting bigger.

The earnings miss happened because adjusted EBITDA margins fell back seven full percentage points in the quarter. But that big decline was all growth investment related. Alibaba is pushing into new geographies and expanding its offline retail presence, both of which are huge growth drivers for the business going forward.

Investing in them today (and sacrificing margins) means ensuring big growth (and bigger margins) tomorrow.

That is why Alibaba’s red-hot revenue growth isn’t slowing much at all. Nor is it expected to slow meaningfully anytime in the near future.

Revenue growth came in at 56% this quarter, versus 61% last quarter and 56% the quarter before that. Core commerce revenue growth was 57%, versus 63% last quarter and 58% the quarter before that.

Annual active customer adds was 27 million, versus 22 million last quarter and 12 million the quarter before that. Mobile active user adds was 31 million, versus 20 million last quarter and 22 million the quarter before that.

Moreover, thanks to these new growth initiatives in offline retail and global expansion, Alibaba hiked its full-year revenue guide from 51% growth to 55.5% growth.

Broad takeaway: Alibaba’s growth isn’t slowing much at all, and the near-term volatility in margins is just a minor hiccup that will sustain big growth for multiple years to come. All in all, Alibaba’s report provides a bullish read for JD stock.

JD is doing the exact same thing as Alibaba. They are also pushing into new geographies and building out an offline retail presence.

Does that mean we will see margin compression this coming quarter? Maybe. But maybe not. Alibaba’s margins also retreated last quarter due to these investments. But JD’s operating margins, which are already much lower, actually doubled last quarter. So I’m not so sure that we will see margin compression from JD in the next ER.

But I am sure that we will see JD post superb top-line growth and deliver a huge 2018 guide.

In other words, I think JD’s report in a few weeks echoes all the big-growth positives from Alibaba’s report, while mitigating the margin-compression negatives. That combination could lead to JD stock flying higher after earnings.

Bottom Line on JD Stock

I think there is near-term upside in this name with blowout earnings just around the corner.

But regardless of how that report shakes out, JD stock is still a name to want to buy on weakness. This is a long-term growth story centered around not just the China omni-channel retail boom, but the global omni-channel retail boom. There is a bunch of growth ahead for this company considering global and offline retail expansion potential.

Margins are low, meaning that the runway for margin expansion is equally large.

All in all, this is a huge top-line growth narrative with huge margin growth drivers and huge earnings growth potential. That makes JD stock a name to own for the long haul.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long JD and BABA.  


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/02/jd-stock-irrational-weakness/.

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