While perusing articles on another financial website, I came across the most ridiculous number I’ve ever heard regarding potential subscribers for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX). NFLX stock attracts a lot of attention.

I shouldn’t be surprised, considering the hyperbole and hype around a company that trades at a valuation that it cannot possibly justify that more hyperbole would be offered up.

But this one takes the cake.

This article suggested Netflix would hit 400 million subscribers by 2018.

NFLX Stock Is not Bulletproof

Now, the article torpedoed itself because after reading though it, it offered no actual modeling as to how that happens. It just assumes that number based on many alleged advantages for NFLX stock. The author was challenged in the comments regarding country-by-country modeling and had no reasonable reply.

One cannot simply say, “Oh, yeah, I see 40 million subscribers in Africa”. I mean, one can say it, but showing how and why that’s possible is what is necessary for anyone intelligent to not fall off their chair laughing.

Let’s start with domestic streaming. This number is leveling off as growth slows – just 5% increase over the last quarter. Have a look at this chart. If you extrapolate this out, you maybe get to 75 million in a few years.

Yes, international subscriptions are adding up quickly. International sits at about 65 million subscribers, having increased by about 18 million in 2017. NFLX would have to add 25 million subscribers every single year to get to 390 million in ten years. That is to say, maintain 25-40% growth through that period.

Not gonna happen.

Obstacles for NFLX Stock

Now, there’s another huge obstacle for NFLX stock in this regard. No matter who you are, when you live in a certain country, you like to see the faces of your ethnicity on the screen. Americans don’t flock to African films any more than Saudis flock to American films.

This is particularly true in China, which has its own massive content machine. If you are Chinese, you want to see Chinese faces.

Not only that, China censors everything that comes in from other countries. A lot of foreign content never sees the light of day because the government is very strict on content.

The other issue is that English language content does not translate to foreign cultures when it comes to comedy, and most drama. Action films transcend borders, but most other films do not. So to assume that Nigerians will get Netflix to binge watch “Longmire” is simply not realistic.

But they will get a streaming service from The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) because “Star Wars” and Marvel action films speak to everyone the world over. While NFLX has Disney content now, that will not be the case at some point.

The Bottom Line on NFLX Stock

As years go on, and technology improves, local streaming companies will also pop up. Countries that offer their own content will push their own streaming services over Netflix, which will only have a fraction of content of interest.

So don’t sell me on 400 million Netflix subscribers globally. Moreover, Netflix will never be able to produce enough content to satisfy every country in every continent. It’s a pipe dream.

Lawrence Meyers is the CEO of PDL Capital, a specialty lender focusing on consumer finance and is the Manager of The Liberty Portfolio at www.thelibertyportfolio.com. He owns shares of DIS. He has 23 years’ experience in the stock market, and has written more than 2,000 articles on investing. Lawrence Meyers can be reached at TheLibertyPortfolio@gmail.com.