In December 2016, I compared General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) to the Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F). I came to the conclusion that General Motors stock was the better value.

Fifteen months later, I’m going to stare down that question one more time. Let’s hope the next 15 months are better for both companies’ stocks.

As of this writing — since December 9 2016, General Motors stock has generated a cumulative total return of 2.3% versus 1.3% for Ford stock.

Given such measly returns, it’s really hard to know if my conclusion was correct or I just got lucky. So, I thought I’d go back to the drawing board and address the value question one more time.

May the best car company win.

General Motors Stock: Under, Over or Fairly Valued?

GM currently has a forward P/E of 5.4, is trading at 3.1 times cash flow, and yielding 4.3%. In 2016, it had adjusted earnings of $6.12 per share. In 2017, they were $6.62; analysts expect them to be lower at $6.31 a share in 2018 and $6.34 in 2019.

Coming off a record fourth quarter in terms of EBIT-adjusted earnings, it’s hard to understand why earnings estimates are down over the next two years, but I’ll assume that’s attributable to slowing sales industry-wide.

It’s still less than six times forward earnings, however.

Given GM sold 8.9 million vehicles worldwide in 2017, gaining market share in its three key markets including China — where it and joint-venture partners sold four-million vehicles for the first time — that’s not a bad price to pay for America’s leading car and truck manufacturer.

With interesting products coming out like the Cadillac XT4 SUV, which ultimately will be used to lead the charge into electric SUVs and driverless cars, General Motors ought to maintain market share in 2018 and beyond.

Ford Stock: Under, Over or Fairly Valued?

Ford currently has a forward P/E of 7.0, is trading at 2.4 times cash flow, and yielding 5.5%. In 2016, it had adjusted earnings of $1.76 per share. In 2017, they were $1.78. Analysts expect them to be lower at $1.57 a share in 2018 and $1.52 in 2019.

You look at the cash flow multiple and the dividend yield and you’re probably thinking Ford might be the better option.

Think again.

By excluding the finance divisions of both businesses, it becomes clear that General Motors stock has a big advantage over Ford.

Comparing the Cash Flow

In 2017, GMs net automotive cash provided by operating activities for its continuing operations was $13.9 billion — it sold the Opel/Vauxhall business in Europe during the past year — while its automotive revenue was $133.6 billion for a cash flow margin of 10.4%.

Meanwhile, Ford’s net automotive cash flow in 2017 was $8.9 billion on $145.7 billion in revenue for a cash flow margin of 6.1%.

This makes Ford’s cash flow margin just 59% of GM’s.

GM makes a lot more from its bread and butter than Ford does, yet Ford’s valuation could be interpreted as being higher than General Motors.

Bottom Line on General Motors Stock vs. Ford

GM has a CEO in Mary Barra who has been in the job for a reasonable amount of time and knows the industry upside down and backwards.

Meanwhile, Ford has Jim Hackett, who might have been a good chief executive for a business manufacturing office furniture, but cars are a little more complicated and a lot more expensive to produce.

If you must buy one of the U.S. auto manufacturers, General Motors is the better buy over the next 15 months.

As of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.