Follow Citron and Buy the Dip in Nvidia Stock

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Nvidia stock - Follow Citron and Buy the Dip in Nvidia Stock

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A few weeks ago, everyone on Wall Street was talking about how chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was ready to rally to $400 on AI and data-related tailwinds. Now, one cryptocurrency plagued quarter later, Nvidia stock is trading down at $140 and no one wants to buy it.

Except for Citron Research. The widely followed short-seller, who has been a vocal bear on Nvidia stock for the past several years, turned bullish on NVDA after the recent correction. In a tweet on November 20, Citron said they have bought the dip in Nvidia stock, and are expecting the company to “eat through inventory issue” and rally to $165.

Investors should pay attention to Citron’s reversal here. The last two times Citron has publicly announced a big reversal on a stock (Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in October and Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) in May), that stock proceeded to rally in a big way over the subsequent several months.

More importantly, though, Citron’s reversal aligns with the fundamentals here. Nvidia stock was trading up near $300 because of growth tailwinds in AI and data-related markets. The cryptocurrency hype was more of a footnote. But, now that this hype is gone, investors are freaking out and selling the stock to multi-year lows. That doesn’t make much sense. The AI and data-related tailwinds remain as robust as ever.

Thus, you have a situation of near-term panic clouding what is still a very promising long-term growth narrative. In those situations, buying the dip is usually the prescient move. As such, I’m following Citron here, and buying the dip in Nvidia stock.

Citron Reversal Is Notable

The Citron reversal on Nvidia stock is notable because Citron rarely reverses its position from short to long, but when they do, they are usually very right.

The last such reversal happened in October. Citron had been a big and vocal bear on electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla. But, in a note dated October 23, Citron reversed its position on Tesla stock from bearish to bullish after a big selloff in the stock. At that time, Tesla stock was trading around $260. Today, Tesla stock is up at $350.

Citron’s other big reversal in 2018 came in May. Citron had been a big and vocal bear on streaming giant Roku. But, in a note dated May 25, Citron reversed its position on Roku stock from bearish to bullish after a big selloff in the stock. At that time, Roku stock was trading around $35. Four months later, Roku stock was up above $70.

In other words, Citron has made big bearish to bullish reversals twice thus far in 2018. Both times, those calls proved to be prescient, and the stocks proceeded to rally in a big way. The same should happen this time around with Nvidia stock.

Fundamentals Support Long-Term Upside

Despite the recent selloff, the fundamentals underlying Nvidia stock remain exceptionally favorable in a long term window.

In a nutshell, the recent correction in Nvidia stock can be attributed to the cryptocurrency mining boom ending, and that big pop creating an inventory problem for the company which will take one to two quarters to work through. As such, revenue growth and margins over the next one to two quarters will likely be depressed. Estimates are now coming down, and because Nvidia stock was trading at such a big multiple (the forward earnings multiple was above 30 not too long ago), every downward revision in forward estimates takes a big chunk out of the stock.

But, nothing about this recent selloff changes the long term growth narrative supporting Nvidia stock. You don’t buy and own Nvidia stock for the long term because of a crypto boom. Instead, you buy and own Nvidia stock for the long term because of its broad exposure to tomorrow’s most important growth markets, like AI, IoT and data centers.

All those businesses continue to do quite well. In Q3, the data center, pro visualization, and automotive businesses all reported record revenues. The data center business grew by nearly 60% year-over-year. The pro visualization business was up nearly 30%. The automotive business was up nearly 20%.

These businesses won’t stop growing any time soon. The common threads among these businesses are the increasing investment in and deployment of AI technologies, as well as the increasing investment in and utilization of data. These two trends aren’t reversing course any time soon. AI is still in the early innings of dramatically changing multiple industries around the world, while data is only growing in volume and importance.

As such, the long-term growth drivers supporting Nvidia stock are unaffected by this recent selloff. Instead, you have a bunch of near term noise thanks to crypto-related inventory issues, and that near term noise is drowning out healthy long term growth prospects. In such situations, the wise move is usually to ignore the most recent headlines, see the forest through the trees, and buy the dip with a long-term horizon.

Bottom Line on NVDA Stock

The recent selloff in Nvidia stock isn’t completely unwarranted. There is a lot of near term noise in the business thanks to crypto-related inventory issues, and lingering questions as to when those issues will clear up.

But, the selloff is overdone. The long-term growth drivers of this business (AI, IoT and data) remain healthy. The valuation is now exceptionally reasonable considering the upside potential of those growth drivers. And, the stock seems way too beaten up from a technical perspective (Relative Strength Index at 25).

Overall, then, this is a dip in Nvidia stock worth buying.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NVDA, TSLA, and ROKU. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/11/follow-citron-and-buy-the-dip-in-nvidia-stock/.

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