With Stability Built In, Buy Adobe Stock on the Dip

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Adobe stock - With Stability Built In, Buy Adobe Stock on the Dip

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It’s funny how you take a company like Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) for granted. I probably open Adobe PDF files several times a day. And yet, I haven’t written a lick about Adobe stock since May and who knows when before that.

I’ll be honest. My love of tech stocks does not run deep. You will rarely find me talking up the latest tech IPO taking the markets by storm. There are plenty of good InvestorPlace writers for that.

My focus is consumer-facing stocks. However, there are times when tech crosses over into the consumer realm — Adobe is definitely one of those companies.

Adobe Stock Buybacks

When I last wrote about Adobe on May 1, ADBE was trading a little higher than where it is today, but not by much.

The article discussed seven companies that shouldn’t do stock buybacks. Here’s what I had to say about Adobe:

Acquisitions are the lifeblood of the tech world. Companies like Adobe grow by buying other companies, either for their technology or talent — sometimes both,” I wrote. “With Adobe generating almost $3 billion in free cash flow annually and its stock trading at 35 times cash flow, acquisitions make a lot more sense than buying back its stock.”

Flash forward to today.

Adobe stock is trading around 29 times cash flow, and its trailing 12-month free cash flow is almost $3.5 billion, significantly higher than a year ago.

Wisely, Adobe uses structured share repurchases where it provides large financial institutions with prepayments — $1.75 billion in fiscal 2018 and $800 million in fiscal 2017  — the financial institutions than buyback stock at prices that ensure Adobe receives a discount to the volume weighted average price over an agreed upon period.

Looking at the free cash flow for fiscal 2017 and 2018, Adobe commits approximately 40% of its free cash flow to repurchase shares, leaving a significant amount for acquisitions and reinvestment in its business.

If you take the midpoint of the nine-month high ($269.96) and low ($165.68) for Adobe stock, it paid $7.33 per share ($225.15) more than the midpoint.

Good share repurchases, in my opinion, happen below the midpoint. Fortunately, for Adobe shareholders, it doesn’t do massive stock buybacks.

Adobe Stock Is Cheaper

As I mentioned earlier, Adobe is trading at price-to-cash flow that’s almost 20% lower than it was seven months ago.

On the flipside, I don’t think you could ever mistake Adobe for a value stock, trading at 27 times forward earnings.

What about growth at a reasonable price?

Well, it will announce fourth-quarter results Dec. 13 after the market closes. Analysts are expecting earnings per share of $1.89, 49% higher than a year earlier with revenues of $2.43 billion, 21% higher than last year.

Top- and bottom-line growth of 21% and 49% respectively suggests at the very least; Adobe is a GARP stock, perhaps even verging on value.

Should you buy on the dip?

With the markets jittery as all get out, you want to own quality stocks. Adobe is such a stock. My guess is that Adobe is buying its stock at these prices. You should be too.

As of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/11/with-stability-built-in-buy-adobe-stock-on-the-dip/.

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