If you absolutely, positively are hell-bent on buying Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock, the best time to do it may be after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release today. If history is any guide, AMZN will fail to meet Wall Street’s lofty expectations.

According to a recent client note from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, AMZN has had “limited success in exceeding” analysts’ Q4 revenue forecasts in the past. The brokerage firm notes that while AMZN beat analyst estimates for the holiday quarter in 2017, the last time it managed this was 2009. Amazon’s track record for meeting its own earnings guidance is solid, however, which may indicate that the e-commerce giant is either low-balling Wall Street or being overly conservative.

Wide Range Of Forecasts for AMZN

To be clear, every publicly-traded company manages investors’ expectations. I’m not suggesting that AMZN is doing anything improper or illegal. Like other companies, AMZN offers a wide range for its revenue forecasts (in this quarter’s case, $66.5 billion to $72.5 billion), so that it has a larger target to aim for.

Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about AMZN’s prospects, thanks to the double-digit growth in Amazon Web Services cloud business — among other reasons. Their average revenue estimate is $71.87 billion — a year-over-year increase of nearly 20%.

AMZN Stock Won’t Stay Cheap

Amazon stock won’t stay this cheap for long. The shares are currently trading about 25% under the Street’s average 52-week price target of $2,100. Given Wall Street’s enthusiasm for Amazon’s highly profitable cloud computing business, I think AMZN can hit that milestone soon without breaking a sweat.

Interestingly, CEO Jeff Bezos has made little effort to hide his disdain for Wall Street. He has never appeared on the company’s quarterly earnings conference calls and is stingy in providing information of interest to investors. For instance, Amazon didn’t officially disclose how many Amazon Prime members until April 2018 — 13 years after its debut — when it claimed 100 million subscribers. Even then, Amazon didn’t provide a breakdown of where the Prime Members are based though it’s safe to assume that most are in the U.S.

Moreover, Amazon still hasn’t explained how many people watch its original video content, such as The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (which is awesome by the way). However, an independent estimate pegs the audience at around 26 million for all of Prime Video in the U.S. But metrics directly from the companies would be helpful in determining if the billions the company is investing in original content are paying off.

But the tide many be starting to turn.

According to Quartz, the SEC is pressing AMZN for additional details regarding how much revenue it earns from Prime subscribers compared with non-prime customers. A report released last year by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners estimated that Prime members spend an average of $1,400 on Amazon, nearly double the $600 non-members shell out. AMZN spent $21.7 billion on shipping in 2017, a figure that likely surged last year.

Amazon May Not Have a Smooth Ride Up

There is a bit of risk for Amazon given the current political climate. Namely, the current president’s tendency to attack ‘fake news’ and to attempt to use his political office to solve his personal grievances. Bezos’ individual ownership of The Washington Post has made him a target for President Donald Trump, who is no fan of the paper’s critical coverage of his administration. Trump often links the Post and AMZN in his Tweets though they are legally separate. He also has accused the company of “ripping off” the Post Office and has threatened to sic antitrust regulators on AMZN and other big tech companies.

Whether anything will happen to Amazon, or if Trump is once again threatening to do things he has no power to do remains to be seen. But that doesn’t keep the markets from reacting to headlines.

The uncertainty over Amazon future will only add to the volatility of AMZN stock. For investors that means that if the buying opportunity doesn’t present itself with AMZN’s latest earnings report, AMZN stock will likely go “on sale” at another point.

As of this writing, the author held no positions in the aforementioned securities.