Media giant Disney (NYSE:DIS) is set to announce first-quarter 2019 earnings after the bell today. The estimates for the quarter are beatable, with revenues expected to drop ~1% year-over-year and profits expected to come in more than 15% lower year-over-year. Yet, despite the easy comp, Disney’s actual first-quarter numbers may even come in lower than these depressed estimates.

But, that doesn’t really matter. A lower-than-expected first quarter-report won’t really move the needle for DIS stock. At worst, this stock drops a few points immediately and then recovers those losses over the subsequent several trading days.

In other words, investors shouldn’t expect a great quarter out of Disney, but they also shouldn’t expect a bad report to kill DIS stock. Instead, this earnings report is largely a non-event in the big picture. There weren’t any headline movie releases. Those are all coming later in 2019. The Disney+ streaming service hasn’t launched it. It’s coming later in 2019. Star Wars Land hasn’t opened yet.

Overall, the quarter was largely nondescript. Thus, while persistent cord cutting weakness will dominate the report, it won’t be a deal-breaker for investors. Instead, DIS stock will likely move a few points, but ultimately remain range bound until big catalysts arrive later in the year.

Disney’s First-Quarter Numbers Could Disappoint

A segment by segment analysis of Disney over the past several months reveals that Disney’s first-quarter earnings report likely won’t be very good.

On the Parks side of things, you should get good (but not great) numbers. The macroeconomic environment remains healthy, but there were some concerns about a coming recession in late 2018, and that may have marginally impacted theme park attendance trends around the holiday period. Indeed, if you look at IsItPacked’s crowd calendar for Disneyland, it appears December 2017 was far busier time than December 2018 for Disneyland.

On the Studio side, you will get, as expected, big year-over-year drops. The year ago quarter had multiple headline releases, including Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Thor: Ragnarok, and Coco. This quarter didn’t have any major releases. Disney’s biggest late 2018 movie was Ralph Breaks The Internet, and that film didn’t have a strong enough showing to crack the top 5 grossing films in the quarter.

Meanwhile, Networks numbers likely won’t be great, either. Ratings on ABC for almost every show have been weak in the 2018-19 season, while NBA ratings on ESPN have taken a big dive this season. Also, the Super Bowl recorded its smallest TV audience in a decade, and while Disney didn’t air the Super Bowl, this decade-low viewership is a sign of the times for all traditional media networks.

Overall, it doesn’t look like anything in Disney’s first quarter report will be that good. As such, the numbers may disappoint, and that could shave off a few points in DIS stock.

Disappointment Won’t Move DIS Stock Much

But the truth is that even really bad numbers won’t drop DIS stock by much. Why? Because this quarter is largely nondescript in the big picture.

In the big picture, Disney is heading into some huge box office releases, gearing up to launch a massive streaming service and preparing to open some of its biggest park expansions ever. None of that happened in the first quarter.

As such, even if first-quarter numbers come in well below expectations, DIS stock won’t fall by much. It is already cheap (16 forward earnings). It’s trading roughly where it was before the last earnings report. The technicals are stable. And the fundamental catalysts are still a few months away.

Overall, Disney may disappoint with Q1 earnings. But, DIS stock won’t react that negatively.

The Long-Term Bull Thesis Is Compelling

If Disney does disappoint with Q1 numbers and DIS stock does drop a few points, that would be a great opportunity buy in ahead of some game-changing catalysts in 2019.

Calendar 2019 promises to be a huge year for Disney, and potentially a breakout year for DIS stock. For a long time, cord cutting headwinds have depressed this company’s revenue and profit growth profile. That has in turn kept DIS stock range bound for several years.

But, in late 2019, Disney is launching a streaming service which — with the right execution — could solve those cord-cutting problems and reinvigorate robust profit growth. Also, before that, Disney is set to release some hugely anticipated films, the sum of which should drive profits higher and create enthusiasm for the streaming service. Consider there are Marvel movies in March and April, with the live-action Dumbo sandwiched in between, and that’s just to start.

Also, Disneyland is set for a huge expansion with Star Wars Land, and that will provide a meaningful boost to 2019 traffic trends.

Overall, 2019 could be a big year for DIS stock. Thus, if the stock drops after largely irrelevant Q1 earnings, then that’s a dip worth buying.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities, but may initiate a long position in DIS within the next 72 hours.