Signs are mounting that Gilead’s (NASDAQ:GILD) remdesivir is at least somewhat effective in treating the novel coronavirus. Those signs are positive for the world, and for GILD stock.
On April 3, the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the European Union’s equivalent of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, recommended that remdesivir be approved for compassionate use.
According to the EMA, “These [compassionate use] programmes are only put in place if the medicine is expected to help patients with life-threatening, long-lasting or seriously debilitating illnesses, which cannot be treated satisfactorily with any currently authorised medicine.”
The agency reported that remdesivir is active against the novel coronavirus, at least in laboratory settings. But that report is not new information. I find it difficult to believe the agency approved remdesivir for compassionate use without evidence the drug was actually effective.
Expanded Access Programs
In late March, Gilead announced it would expand access to remdesivir. Specifically, Gilead meant that it was switching from compassionate use applications to expanded access programs. According to Gilead, this would give more patients access to remdesivir.
And on April 4, the company announced it would seek to produce enough remdesivir to treat 1 million people by the end of 2020.
Gilead undoubtedly has access to a great deal of data about the drug’s effectiveness. With that in mind, I find it difficult to believe it would have taken these steps without clear and convincing evidence.
Gilead is choosing to provide the drug to thousands of more sick people. If it proves ineffective, its reputation would take a meaningful hit. Unless Gilead truly believes it is at least somewhat effective, I doubt it would go through with these expanded access programs.
Anecdotes Show Promise
Multiple anecdotes suggest that remdesivir can help very sick coronavirus patients. For example, a 79-year-old Italian began taking remdesivir. After just 12 days he tested negative.
And Chris Kane, a 55-year-old Floridian, had the virus and was suffering from very high fevers and breathing difficulties. He says that 48 hours after taking the drug, his “temperature dropped dramatically” and his breathing improved.
An Important Threat
One threat to GILD stock is hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug that’s been around for decades. Hydroxychloroquine has shown significant promise as a treatment for the coronavirus, and many doctors in Europe and some in the U.S. are now prescribing it.
Still, hydroxychloroquine was not significantly more effective than an alternative treatment in at least one trial. Moreover, one doctor who has studied the drug’s efficacy as a treatment for the coronavirus has a mixed view on it.
“I predict that [hydroxychloroquine] will have a modest effect on coronavirus and that other antivirals will also be very useful,” Dr. Drew Pinsky said on his podcast. “I think we’ll hit the virus in multiple ways and in multiple sites and we’ll start to get guidance on when we use which medication.”
The Bottom Line on GILD Stock
Reading the tea leaves, I believe there is a very high chance that remdesivir is effective against the coronavirus. What about the risks? Although hydroxychloroquine will probably also have some efficacy, I tend to agree with Pinsky’s assessment. We will use multiple drugs to fight the virus.
Finally, as I’ve stated in the past, I believe that remdesivir can meaningfully move the needle for Gilead from a financial standpoint.
Gilead said it would provide remdesivir for free for 140,000 patients. But I’m not worried about that. In the coming quarters, given that 1 million people have already tested positive for the coronavirus, the drug will be lucrative for the company.
To conclude, I recommend buying GILD stock now.
As of this writing, Larry Ramer owned shares of GILD stock. Larry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 13 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel’s largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been GE, solar stocks, and Snap. You can reach him on StockTwits at @larryramer.
