Recent weeks has seen a surge in trading in Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) So far in the year, JMIA stock is up over 16%. However, that metric tells only half the story.
In mid-March, it hit a 52-week low of $2.15. By early August, it saw a 52-week high of $23.90. Now it is hovering at $7.8.
The Berlin-based Jumia Technologies is present across 11 countries (i.e., around 600 million people), “accounting for more than 70% of Africa’s GDP of €2 trillion and almost 70%3 of Africa’s internet users.” In addition to an online marketplace, the company offers logistics and payment services, as well.
Now investors wonder if shares in this young pan-African e-commerce platform can once again go and stay over $10 and even $20.
Although we regard the potential offered by e-commerce globally and the growth of business in Africa, we find JMIA stock risky for most long-term retail investors. However, those investors who are able to commit risk capital may consider buying the shares, especially if they fall toward $5, or even below.
A Closer Look at JMIA Stock
Recent research led by Makuochi Nkwo of Paul University, Awka, Nigeria highlights, “The Jumia and Konga E-Commerce platforms … are easily the biggest and top ranking E-Commerce sites, as well as two of the top 10 most visited sites in Nigeria and Africa, as seen on Alexa rankings.”
Jumia also confirms this ranking by Alexa.
Another Nigeria-based research concludes, “In the past five years, Africa has had the most rapid Internet growth rate in the world…, [which] has lead to consumers and producers seeing the advantages of ecommerce with convenience forming the major enticing factor for online businesses.”
The authors identify two factors that hamper the growth of e-commerce in the continent, i.e., “delivery infrastructure and secure payment methods. Several countries lack even an organized physical address system, and cash on delivery is the main payment method that online merchants such as Takealot, Jumia and Konga among others, must deal with.”
Despite the challenges, Jumia has the first-mover advantage and been growing its operations. In 2019, it had around 6.1 million active customers and 110,000 active sellers.
In mid-August, it reported Q2 results that raised eyebrows. Revenue declined around 10%. Investors had been hoping a boost to e-commerce in the days of corona. Furthemore, margins are low and the company is burning significant amounts of cash.
On a better note, company orders went up by 8% in the quarter. And annual active customers increased by 40% to reach 6.8 million. JumiaPay, its digital payments platform, wa another bright spot.
Payment volume was up 106%. However, since announcing earning, JMIS stock has more than halved. On Aug. 11, it closed at $16.37. No, they are around $7.8.
So Should You Buy JMIA Stock Now?
In the coming weeks, JMIA stock is likely to be volatile possibly with a further downward bias. A move toward the $5-level is likely. Unless you are able to allocate risk capital into the shares, you may want to stay on the sidelines, at least for now.
It is important to appreciate the growth potential of e-commerce in Africa. However, it is likely to take years. Therefore, long-term investors would need to be patient. One possibility is that the group gets acquired by a multinational company in the future quarters. Then shareholders would be well rewarded.
Do you already own JMIA shares? If you are an experienced investor in the options market, you may consider using a covered call strategy with approximately a one-month time horizon, like an Oct. 16 expiry. Such a covered call position would offer you some downside protection. You would also be able to participate in a potential up move.
If you do not currently own the stock, but would like to, you may, instead, consider buying into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds JMIA stock as a holding. The two funds to consider would be Amplify International Online Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XBUY) and Amplify Online Retail ETF (NASDAQ:IBUY).
Furthermore if you’d like to invest in the growth of the African continent, then you may be interested to know that there are several ETFs of interest. They include iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (NYSEARCA:EZA), VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF (NYSEARCA:AFK), Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF (NYSEARCA:NGE), VanEck Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EGPT), and Franklin FTSE South Africa ETF (NYSEARCA:FLZA).
On the date of publication, Tezcan Gecgil did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
The author has worked in investment management for over two decades in the U.S. and U.K. In addition to formal higher education in the field, she has also completed all 3 levels of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) examination. Her passion is for options trading based on technical analysis of fundamentally strong companies. She especially enjoys setting up weekly covered calls for income generation. She also publishes educational articles on long-term investing.
