ChargePoint May Suffer From the EV Boomerang Effect

Advertisement

As a charging station for electric vehicles, ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) theoretically represents the best investment to advantage this burgeoning market. Essentially, with CHPT stock, you’re not betting on which team will win the big one. Instead, you’re selling tickets to the game.

A close-up of an orange ChargePoint (CHPT) station.
Source: JL IMAGES / Shutterstock.com

Of course, that concept hasn’t consistently bolstered ChargePoint’s investment profile.

As you can see from its chart, CHPT stock has its fair share of ups and downs, even though it’s a new offering.

A large part of the reason why is likely due to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Many folks assume that it will forever maintain its throne but that’s a dangerous thesis.

With legacy automakers ramping up their own EV ambitions, betting on one specific brand may not cut the muster anymore.

Instead, conservative investors ought to consider infrastructure plays like CHPT stock. Underlining the trade is the ultimate recognition that EVs can run but they can’t hide from public chargers indefinitely.

But because of the novel coronavirus pandemic, CHPT stock now enjoys another unexpected tailwind. As you know, EVs incorporate fewer moving parts.

Therefore, all other things being equal, they are more reliable than their combustion-based counterparts and require fewer maintenance sessions.

Prior to the pandemic, consumers took for granted the maintenance scheduling requirements for combustion cars.

From fluid changes to tune ups to fixing electronic gremlins that occasionally pop up, regular cars are a pain. But many didn’t realize how dependent these vehicles are on infrastructure until the pandemic-related lockdowns temporarily stymied access to it.

On the other hand, EV owners basically just charged their vehicles at home and sped off. True, they do require maintenance but it’s nowhere near as onerous as what you would expect for a combustion car.

Even just parking a combustion car for too long is bad. However, EVs don’t suffer from this common liability.

Coronavirus Wants Payback From CHPT Stock

Because the cons of combustion cars became so evident to millions of Americans, Covid-19 basically became an organic marketing campaign for EVs.

By going electric, you get far fewer headaches. Plus, the cost of ownership (at least in the U.S.) is lower longer term for EVs. Thus, whatever is good for the electric transportation industry is good for CHPT stock.

But while this fundamental argument makes sense for ChargePoint and its ilk, it has a glaring weakness: CHPT stock has not performed well recently.

For instance, over the trailing month, shares are down 30%, which is startling for such a relevant investment. What’s going on?

For the near term, one of the biggest concerns is the Covid-19 boomerang effect for the EV market.

At first, the crisis supported the bullishness in CHPT stock because the convenience of EVs suited the platform for the new normal. But the back end of the pandemic — that is, the global semiconductor supply chain disruption — hurts EVs disproportionately.

According to a McKinsey & Company analysis, compact to midrange combustion cars use about $100 to $350 worth of semiconductor components.

However, the average hybrid electric vehicle uses approximately $600 worth. And McKinsey also notes that some “hybrid drivetrains contain more than $1,000 of electronics, much of which is in power circuits.”

Presumably — although to be fair, I can’t say for 100% certain — battery electric vehicles should have similar cost profiles regarding semiconductor usage.

Aside from luxury vehicles (which use an inordinate amount of computer chips), EVs likely are more impacted by the global chip supply shortage.

Naturally, this dynamic put EVs in the shadows as people bum rushed their way to used car dealerships, which have experienced a radical surge in sales.

A Demand Leapfrog Problem

Moreover, because so many people bought used cars, it’s likely that this will impact the EV transition by at least a year or two.

With the masses having sated themselves with whatever combustion cars or trucks they could get, they won’t be in a mood to make another pricey purchase.

Also, if interest rates rise and scales down the euphoria, this could lead to a temporary deflationary shock to correct the rabid inflation. In that case, a weary and spent-out consumer base won’t be looking at EVs for a few years.

And if demand isn’t pouring in for EVs, that’s not a great scenario for CHPT stock. Therefore, I’m not entirely surprised at the equity unit’s volatility. Prospective speculators should be prepared for some ugly twists and turns.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2021/07/chpt-stock-may-suffer-from-ev-boomerang-effect/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC