The major correction DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) has been on since early September has seen DKNG stock lose almost 70% of its value.
Thanks to a terrible first month of 2022 — 374 S&P 500 stocks are down year-to-date through Jan. 21 — DraftKings now trades under $20 for the first time since April 2020.
Investors who bought DKNG at the end of December probably thought they were getting a pretty good deal at $27 and change. However, as I write this, DraftKings is down 5% in early trading, getting closer to the mid-teens with each passing day.
How low can DKNG stock go?
DKNG Stock Could End up in Single Digits
If you bought DraftKings above $60 in early September, I doubt you’re still holding the sports betting stock. But if you are, this falling knife looks like it could keep moving lower in February, possibly into single digits.
That said, I still believe it has a promising long-term future. But as I said in December, it is not going to get back to the $60s without taking shareholders on a very bumpy ride. In this article, I wrote:
“I believe DraftKings has a strong brand. The addition of Golden Nugget Online Gaming will undoubtedly help bring some balance to a business driven primarily by sports betting. Using stock to buy GNOG, I think GNOG investors will be happy long-term with the decision to sell to DraftKings.”
So far, early in 2022, DraftKings has already announced three new states for online or in-person sports betting. The most prominent announcement was the Jan. 8 launch of its New York mobile and online sportsbook, ahead of the NFL playoffs. After watching the Buffalo Bills lose a heartbreaker to the Kansas City Chiefs, my guess is sports betting in the Empire State is going to be significant for the remainder of the playoffs and beyond.
The fact that the company continues to exercise its game plan to control a big share of the U.S. sports betting market doesn’t seem to be translating into demand for its stock. The faltering market certainly isn’t helping the cause.
My InvestorPlace colleague, Joel Baglole, recently discussed why DKNG has yet to bottom. Baglole feels the company is burning through too much cash — it lost $1.2 billion in the nine months ended Sep. 30, 2021 — spending more than $703 million in sales and marketing through the first three quarters of fiscal 2021, about 132% higher than a year earlier.
Until DraftKings’ pathway to profitability becomes more apparent, my colleague believes the stock will continue to fall. I would agree with his assessment.
However, the further it falls, the more attractive it will become for aggressive value investors. Here’s why.
Increased Sports Betting Should Help
In December, one out of every four American adults (21 or older) bet on sports. That’s got to be music to the ears of all the major participants, DraftKings included.
Even more impressive is that 12% of American adults bet on sports weekly in December, up from 5% in January 2021. The number of adults who bet on sports monthly increased by 80% in 2021. As more states legalize sports betting, these numbers will continue to increase dramatically.
Say what you want about Ark Invest Chief Executive Officer Cathie Wood’s portfolio management prowess or lack thereof. Still, the fact that she continues to buy DKNG is an indication that she sees the stats above and believes DraftKing can continue to attract and retain many American adults who bet on sports.
DraftKings had 1.3 million monthly unique payers (MUPs) in the third quarter, 31% higher than Q3 2020. In addition, the average revenue per MUP was $47 in Q3 2021, 38% higher than a year earlier.
As a result, it led the company up to its 2021 full-year guidance to $1.26 billion at the midpoint, 96% higher than a year earlier. In 2022, it expects $1.8 billion in revenue, 43% higher than in 2021.
InvestorPlace’s Tezcan Gecgil recently pointed out that 32 analysts covering DKNG give it a Buy rating. The 27 who give it a 12-month target price have a median price of $58, providing investors with significant upside potential.
She believes it could be a takeover target given its falling share price. However, if a deal does happen, you can be sure it will be for a lot more than $19.32 where it currently trades.
If you are an aggressive investor who doesn’t mind making bets on unprofitable businesses with growth potential, the risk-to-reward proposition is getting better by the day. As I said in December, if you do buy, I would put aside some cash to buy more should it fall into the low teens or even single digits, which could happen sooner rather than later.
You should not be entertaining buying DKNG stock if you can’t handle lots of risk. And let’s face it, there’s plenty.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
