When Will Inflation Go Down in 2022?

  • The Fed has already raised interest rates repeatedly this year with few tangible impacts on prices.
  • Some economists suspect it may take until at least 2023 before prices start to relax.
  • Ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, many are already anticipating another 75 basis-point hike.
When will inflation go down - When Will Inflation Go Down in 2022?

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Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate hike, investors everywhere are wondering: When will inflation go down? Many economists believe it may take the remainder of the year before the Fed’s contractionary policy takes effect on prices. Indeed, despite the slew of rate hikes so far this year, prices have remained stubbornly elevated.

With the Fed likely planning to mount another 75 basis-point interest rate increase at its July 26-27 meeting, inflation is top of mind for millions of Americans. Indeed, as per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May, prices are still dangerously high. Basic categories like energy are up more than 30% from the same time last year. This is largely a consequence of rising fuel costs. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put supply chain pressure on inputs like oil and wheat, some of the countries’ largest exports. Americans are grappling with some of the highest gas prices in more than a decade. And some consumers and experts fear inflation may indirectly lead the country down a recessionary rabbit hole.

The Fed has done nearly everything in its power to lower prices. The central bank has levied the highest magnitude interest rate hikes since 1994 with more on the way, continued to push the Federal funds rate to its now 3.1% level, and is rapidly shrinking its balance sheet. At this point, most Americans are waiting for the money to catch up to the monetary policy.

When Will Inflation Go Down?

Many economists believe prices may remain stagnant for the much of the rest of the year. According to Preston Caldwell, head of U.S. economics for Morningstar, prices may not ease until 2023.

“While consensus has largely given up on the ‘transitory’ story for inflation, we still think most of the sources of today’s high inflation will abate, and even unwind in impact, over the next few years. This includes energy, autos and other durables. Worries about inflation broadening out into the rest of the economy, including via high-wage growth, look overblown.”

While the war in Ukraine continues, it’s difficult to imagine supply issues easing within the next quarter. While that isn’t to say that recession is a certainty, consumers are looking for the Fed’s tightening to take effect on price levels, which may well come with a slew of externalities. Unemployment, slowed wages and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and more may well accompany the lower prices.

Ahead of the July Fed meeting, many policy voters, like Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly, see another 75 basis-point hike in the cards. “Seventy-five in July is where I’m starting because I think that right now, that looks like what we’ll need to do. But I’ll be watching to see any signs that we are less sure about the tightening level that’s already taking place,” Daly told reporters Friday.

On the date of publication, Shrey Dua did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.


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