Why FuelCell Energy Is Not a Buy After Q2 Earnings

  • FuelCell Energy (FCEL) will report Q2 earnings on June 9, what to expect?
  • Important announcements have been made and the stock has a 1-month return of 29%, why this is hard to be sustainable now.
  • Key fundamentals are not bullish, and upcoming interest rate hikes set a bearish view.
FCEL stock - Why FuelCell Energy Is Not a Buy After Q2 Earnings

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FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) stock, “a global leader in manufacturing stationary fuel cell energy platforms for decarbonizing power and producing hydrogen through its proprietary, state-of-the-art fuel cell technology to enable a world empowered by clean energy” announced second-quarter 2022 financial results on June 9, a material event that should have move FCEL stock. Does these earnings confirm a bottom has been made for shares of  FuelCell Energy in 2022?

The stock made a bottom in May at near $3 a share and ever since has made a rally of nearly 29%. Still, this rally only trimmed year-to-date losses that are now approximately 22%. I am bearish on FCEL stock, here is why.

FCEL FuelCell Energy $3.25

Will FCEL Stock Go Up?

In first-quarter 2022, FuelCell Energy reported mixed results. EPS normalized number of -$0.08 was in-line. EPS GAAP of -$0.08 figure was a miss by -$0.03. The revenue figure of $31.80 million was a beat by $5.53 million.

If FCEL stock is to go up following the Q2 earnings, it should deliver a positive surprise on both EPS and on revenue. The EPS GAAP estimate is -$0.06 and the revenue estimate is $34.91 million. I

f these estimates prove to be correct, then the firm will announce a narrower quarterly loss and marginal growth of nearly 1.6% for revenue. Are these numbers enough to fuel a rally for the stock?

I do not think so. FCEL stock is not a value growth but is a growth stock. The loss of strong revenue growth is not something that should make its shareholders happy as the fundamental analysis of the stock is highly problematic. More on this below.

Important Announcements To Monitor

FuelCell Energy has announced an important collaboration with TuNur Ltd, an independent renewable energy company that signals an expansion of business operations in North Africa and in Europe.

FuelCell Energy has also extended its partnership with Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) for the commercialization of fuel cell carbon capture and storage technology until Dec. 31, 2022.

Finding and exploring new application opportunities with Exxon Mobil is a big plus for FuelCell Energy, as it can lead to a more long-term agreement. I see huge potential here.

Is FCEL a Buy or Sell?

This is the so-called million-dollar question. I argue that FCEL stock is a sell and not a buy. The company is unprofitable, its shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 20% and the operating margin has been in a 5-year decline. On top of that, the revenue per share has declined in the past 5-years.

FuelCell Energy is also burning cash delivering widening net losses. I do not see a catalyst now that supports a bullish thesis.

Any short-term rallies should be short lived, and the company should deliver top Q2 earnings to fuel its stock price higher. I see slim odds for this to occur. The broader fundamental picture is bleak.

On the date of publication, Stavros Georgiadis, CFA  did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Stavros Georgiadis is a CFA charter holder, an Equity Research Analyst, and an Economist. He focuses on U.S. stocks and has his own stock market blog at thestockmarketontheinternet.com. He has written in the past various articles for other publications and can be reached on Twitter and on LinkedIn.


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