September is usually a bad month, but maybe not this year… a live trade opportunity with Jonathan Rose… the latest huge claim from Elon Musk… watch for $7 trillion in cash to move back into the market
Going by the data, yesterday’s market selloff is a preview of what to expect for the rest of September…
Or is it?
According to market history, we’ve just begun the worst month of the year for stock performance. Here’s MarketWatch with the gory details:
History shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has generated an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September and finished higher only 42.2% of the time dating back to 1897.
September has also been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which have averaged monthly declines of 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
The S&P 500 has finished higher only 44.9% of the time since 1928, while the Nasdaq has registered positive monthly returns 51.9% of the time dating back to 1971.
But bears shouldn’t pop the cork yet…
History also tells us that the severity of September weakness eases when stocks have trended higher over the summer and held up during August. And this year, saying stocks “held up” is an understatement.
The Dow climbed 3.2% last month – its best August performance since 2020. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and S&P posted respective returns of 1.6% and 1.9%. And rate-sensitive small-caps did the best as traders upped their bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The Russell 2000 jumped 7%.
So, will September live up to its bearish reputation?
One indicator provides clues – the S&P’s 200-day moving average (MA).
Here’s Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial:
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average going into September, the average price return for the month jumps to 1.3%, with 60% of occurrences producing positive results.
This compares to an average September price decline of 4.2% and positivity rate of only 15% when the index is below its 200-DMA going into the month.
As you can see below, the S&P currently trades at a healthy cushion above its 200-day MA.
So, perhaps September won’t be as disastrous as history suggests.
Now, even if it is, that doesn’t mean traders won’t be able to find pockets of strength. And veteran trader Jonathan Rose has a suggestion for you…
An under-the-radar accounting shift is resulting in fast profits
For newer Digest readers, Jonathan is the latest analyst to join our InvestorPlace family.
He earned his stripes at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, going toe-to-toe with some of the world’s most aggressive and successful moneymakers. He’s made more than $10 million over the course of his career, profiting from bull markets, bear markets, and everything in between.
On August 11, we highlighted Jonathan’s work on a little-noticed provision buried in President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
While headlines focused on tax brackets and energy credits, the real market-moving detail was tucked in the fine print: a retroactive change to how U.S. companies expense their R&D.
From 2022 through 2024, businesses were forced to amortize their research spending over five years. This dulled the financial benefits of innovation and depressed reported earnings.
But starting in 2025, the rule flipped back – and with it came the ability to go back and expense those prior years immediately.
The accounting shift doesn’t alter revenue or operations, but it does transform how earnings and free cash flow appear on paper. And in markets, appearances can move prices (at least in the short term).
Jonathan flagged a handful of stocks that were in a great position to benefit. Here he is with details on one:
Thirty days before the Street woke up, I wrote an essay to our Masters in Trading community pointing the opportunity stemming from this accounting shift.
Lyft was my top name on the list. We bought in on July 30th when shares were around $13–$14.
By late August, the stock had rallied to $17 — right into its expected move range. That’s when we started locking in some profits.
Since we featured Jonathan’s research on August 11, LYFT has jumped 30%.
If you missed this move, you’re not too late
Jonathan just put on a new bullish LYFT trade last Thursday in his Advanced Notice trading service.
And, yesterday, we learned that Lyft announced a private offering of $450 million of convertible senior notes. Jonathan sent me this quick analysis:
This move screams confidence and strategic position, not distress:
- Raising cheap capital in a still relatively low-rate environment
- Using financial tools to limit dilution
- Signaling undervaluation through buybacks
- Preparing for growth opportunities like robotaxis and international expansion
Put it all together and here’s Jonathan’s forecast:
The writing is on the wall. By the end of the year, I believe Lyft trades comfortably above $20.
While a jump to $20+ from LYFT’s $17.58 price (as I write) would mean a trading gain approaching 15%, for veteran traders like Jonathan, the real fireworks come from playing such a potential move with an option.
Though many factors influence an option’s value, a call option benefiting from a 15% jump in the underlying stock could explode upwards of 200% – 300% over the ensuing months.
Jonathan’s track record is a testament to such triple-digit returns. A few such examples in Advanced Notice from the last few months include:
- ETHA call spread: +275.33% (less than a month in the trade)
- U Call Spread: +227.03% (about a month and a half in the trade)
- MP Call Spread +700.00% (about half a month in the trade)
If “options” makes you nervous…
That’s understandable. However, your anxiety could be misinformed – and standing in the way of a massive boost for your portfolio.
Here’s Jonathan:
Options aren’t some Wall Street mystery reserved for guys in $5,000 suits.
I get it. You start reading about straddles, strangles, iron condors, and butterflies, and your eyes glaze over. It feels like learning a foreign language. So, you retreat back to what’s comfortable — buying and selling stocks.
But here’s what you’re missing…
Options are just another way to trade your same opinion on the same stocks you already know.
If you’re curious about how to use options wisely, Jonathan is one of the best teachers out there. He’s created a curriculum that walks investors through the learning process – the Masters in Trading Options Challenge.
Here’s how Jonathan describes it:
You’ve got nothing to prove. You’ve just got to be willing to learn.
And once you see how simple it can be, you’ll never look at options the same way again.
In any case, consider yourself tipped off on Lyft.
Is Tesla throwing in the towel on being a car company?
Yesterday, Elon Musk made one of his boldest predictions yet…
About 80% of Tesla’s long-term value will come from Optimus, the humanoid robot project he first unveiled four years ago.
That’s a staggering claim for a company best known for electric vehicles. But it underscores a reality that’s bigger than Tesla itself…
Humanoid robots are no longer science fiction – they’re already here.
Here are three examples:
- Tesla’s Optimus is folding laundry, stocking shelves, and even serving popcorn at a new Tesla diner in Los Angeles…
- Figure’s humanoids are working in warehouses…
- And Sanctuary’s AI-powered robots are handling logistics and tools…
Now, Musk may be exaggerating Tesla’s share of the pie. But on the larger point, he’s right…
The future of economic growth belongs to AI and robots.
For investors, the message is simple. You don’t have to bet the farm on Tesla, but you do need exposure to this megatrend. Because just like electricity, the internet, and smartphones, humanoids won’t be optional – they’ll be everywhere.
For more on how to position your portfolio, Luke recently put out a free research report that dives into Tesla’s Optimus humanoid and a backdoor way to invest (not buying Tesla). You can check out the full story right here.
Though robots are a long-term growth opportunity, for potentially much faster profits, legendary investor Louis Navellier says the spotlight shifts to President Trump
This is because what Louis calls the “Trump Shock” could ignite a powerful, near-term rally just weeks from today – September 30, to be exact.
As we’ve been profiling in the Digest, roughly $7 trillion in cash is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a green light to move back into stocks.
Take a look at this mountain of cash…
As we covered in yesterday’s Digest, with Trump’s tariff agenda now under courtroom scrutiny, he has every incentive to push his pro-growth playbook harder. That means tax cuts, energy expansion, onshoring, and infrastructure spending on a scale not seen in decades.
The parallel to Reagan’s 1980s boom is hard to miss…
Back then, bold fiscal policy drove GDP growth above 7% and sent the Dow soaring 250%. Louis believes Trump 2.0 could unleash a similarly explosive move – but more concentrated.
This won’t be an index-wide move – instead, big institutional money will pour into a select handful of companies with the earnings power to harness AI and other transformational technologies.
Louis has already pinpointed five “buy”-rated names that he expects to lead when Wall Street catches on. With September 30 fast approaching, the window to get positioned is closing.
For the full story from Louis, click here.
We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
