The latest headlines have stirred up volatility and raised investor fear on Wall Street, making it difficult to see through the red numbers. This is when it’s especially important to take a step back to look at the bigger picture.
![7 Reasons You Should Still Be Bullish](https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif)
Today, I’d like to share seven reasons why I remain bullish on this market.
#1: Earnings
We’ve talked about how quarterly numbers continue to support higher prices as earnings grow by double digits and ultimately serve as the primary driver of the market. With 95% of companies having reported second-quarter earnings, the estimate is for 12% growth over last year; revenues have increased by 5%.
Looking ahead, there could be a slight dip in earnings growth to the high single-digits, but they are expected to return to double-digit growth through the first quarter of 2019 as revenue averages 5% year-over-year growth in the same time frame.
#2: Small-Cap Stocks
Small caps have lagged the large-cap indices this year, with the iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:IWM) sitting around just 2% returns for 2017 versus 9%-plus for the S&P 500.
The earnings picture for smaller stocks has also not been nearly as bullish, with this quarter’s EPS set to decline 12% from last year for the S&P 600 Small Cap Index. However, that is about to change in a dramatic fashion. Earnings next quarter are expected to show a positive number before beginning a string of strong double-digit increases through the first quarter of 2019.
The charts are also setting up for a small-cap rally, with the index sitting on a major support level that dates back to November 2016.
#3: Global Stock Markets
On the flip side, global markets have led the rally this year. From Europe to Asia to South America, I am sure you would be surprised by some of 2017’s best performers. Poland and Turkey are two of the top performers, as are Mexico, Argentina and Chile. Overall, the emerging markets are up 27%, and Europe is up 17% versus a gain of 9.5% for the S&P 500.
The basis for the rally remains as valuations are more attractive than the United States and are also attractive on a historical basis. The outperformance has given investors opportunities to profit outside of U.S. stocks, and I anticipate we’ll get a chance to profit from them as well.
#4: Interest Rates
Originally, interest rates were expected to be a head wind for stocks this year, but the opposite has been the case with the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.17% and close to testing the 2017 low from June. The upside is that low interest rates make it easier for companies to borrow money to fuel growth, and they also make stocks more attractive to investors who are after a diversified portfolio.
The Federal Reserve is likely to remain accommodative of the market and hold off on any aggressive rate increases for now. In fact, there are actually odds of a rate cut over the central bank’s next two meetings that rival those of a rate hike.
#5: Political Landscape
Yes, the same catalyst for the recent selling could eventually turn into one for a rally.
The media and politicians’ focus on topics that are not helpful for the economy have hurt the market, and a recent divide within the Republican party has led to increased skepticism that the administration will not be able to pass its much talked about tax reform. We have to see how this story plays out, but if and when tax reform becomes a reality, it will be a game changer that should propel stocks to new highs.
#6: NexGen Sectors
Our favorite mega-trends have continued to outperform, and I believe they will only offer stronger risk-versus-reward opportunities in the future. Remember: These are areas of the market Wall Street isn’t watching yet, giving us a chance to profit from companies gearing up to be tomorrow’s leaders.
#7: The Charts
Saving the best for last, we cannot ignore what the charts are telling us about what’s going on behind the market headlines. The major indices remain above key short-term support levels, and if they continue that trend, it will be yet another reason to remain bullish. Even if they breach short-term support levels, there are several other areas of support that will keep the indices in longer-term uptrends and the bulls running strong.
Each of these reasons fuels our strategy right now, and is why I continue to watch for opportunities amid the weakness. The S&P 500 is down just 1.5% from its all-time closing high, but about 40% of the stocks within the index have dropped at least 10% from their recent peaks.
These pullbacks create some enticing bargain buys that I’m keeping a close eye on once the charts confirm the overall weakness has calmed.
Matthew McCall is the founder and president of Penn Financial Group, an investment advisory firm, as well as the editor of FUTR Stocks and the ETF Bulletin. Matt just launched two new investment advisories focused around the “next” generation investing theme. His trademark three-prong investing approach targets the mega-trends old Wall Street is missing out on. Click here for more information on the “NexGen” Experience.