Earnings Trade – Short Abbott Labs-ABT

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Next week is crammed with huge earnings reports, and that means plenty of trading opportunities … finally. I’ve been waiting for this week for a while now, especially with the market caught in a bit of a trading range for the past two to three weeks.

The table below lists stocks on my radar that I’m considering for trades. It includes their report date and what analysts currently expect for profit growth (compared to the same quarter a year ago). I’ve also included my favorite technical measure — the 50-day moving average — so you can see potential support or resistance.

Finally, I give an idea of the overall sentiment toward the stock based on our various indicators. Keep in mind that optimistic sentiment represents higher expectations and, thus, can create some vulnerability if those expectations aren’t met. Conversely, pessimism reflects lower expectations that often lead to upside earnings surprises. (See 12 Keys to Trading Earnings for Profits.)

Here’s the table for next week. Note that sentiment is optimistic or mixed on four stocks that currently reside below their respective 50-day moving averages.

Stock Ticker 4/07 Close 50-day MA Sentiment Earnings Date Profit Growth Expectation
Abbott Labs ABT 42.92 50.11 Optimistic 4/15 +13%
Baxter International BXT 48.32 53.85 Optimistic 4/16 +9%
Intel INTC 15.45 14.05 Optimistic 4/14 -92%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 51.36 53.18 Optimistic 4/14 +3%
Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX 26.23 30.39 Mixed 4/16 -14%

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Buy Puts on Abbott Labs

Abbott Labs (ABT) is one of those healthcare/biotech plays that was often considered a safe (or at least safer) play in a tumbling market. But ABT’s chart says otherwise.

In fact, the drug manufacturer has severely underperformed the broader market since mid-February. Now the shares are trading near a three-year low, far below any significant moving average support.

Yet sentiment toward ABT reveals a different picture. And that could pose problems. Nine of 13 analysts rate the stock a “buy,” leaving little room for upgrades.

The put/call ratio has been sinking for the past couple of weeks, indicating a pick-up in call volume relative to puts. And short interest remains at a low level.

On the earnings front, analysts expect profit growth of 13%, which is just a touch below what the company has averaged for the past four quarters. That creates an air of expectancy that may be difficult to satisfy.

When optimism remains high while a stock sinks lower on the charts, we grow concerned that selling pressure is building. How much longer will analysts and options players tolerate continued underperformance?

ABT is clearly under added pressure to produce a solid earnings report and outlook. That’s an unenviable position, especially when most stocks have lowered expectations.

ABT is setting up as a good put play next week.


Jon Lewis is the co-editor of The Winning Edge trading service designed to help you make options profits around corporate earnings and other market events. For more information about Chris, read his bio here.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2009/04/earnings-play-short-abbott-labs/.

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