What Does Your Intuition Tell You?

Investing in the stock market is really not as complex as many make it out to be. Cut through much of the noise and what you have left is a few basic fundamental principles and intuition.

Surprisingly though, intuition often gets ignored because it is amorphous. Can you really beat the market using gut feeling? The answer is yes, but it takes more than just a feeling. I prefer to call it basic instinct.

Here is where intuition comes into play. What happens when a growth stock slows? The answer is obvious. The higher they sit the harder they fall. For growth stocks that can mean big losses in a portfolio if growth ultimately fails to deliver.

If you have a sense that growth has reached its peak trust that instinct. You may be a bit early, but in many cases you will ultimately be correct. That axiom is especially true during the difficult economic times we now face.

It simply does not make sense to pay huge premiums for anything no matter the growth potential.

An example is Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG). On Wednesday after the bell sounded, the large medical equipment company warned that revenues in the fourth quarter would fall short of expectations.

For the period the company now expects to report revenue of $232 million, a 22% increase over the year prior. Not bad on the surface for a growth company, but not good when you consider analysts were expecting revenue of $255 million.

For the upcoming year the company reduced revenue estimates as well. Intuitive now believes that revenue will increase by 15% in the period to $1.01 billion. Analysts were expecting $1.11 billion. Is your intuition kicking in?

Considering the stock was trading for close to 20 times forward earnings any stumble has the potential to push the stock lower. Indeed that is what is transpiring today as the stock is down some 6% on the news.

Even though shares are down greatly from their peak, there is more room to fall. It does not make intuitive sense to pay a premium for a stock whereby growth is slowing no matter the macro-economic reasons.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com. James F. Dlugosch contributed to this article.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2009/01/what-does-your-intuition-tell-you/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC