Editor’s Note: Sam Collins will be on vacation through June 25. Filling in for him are two other top technical analysts, Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis. 

SPDR S&P Retail (NYSE: XRT) — This retail ETF hit a three-month low last week. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the ETF found perfect support at its 200-day moving average and has been driving higher ever since.

The bulls should be pleased with the fact that XRT has rallied in the face of some disappointing news — retail sales suffered their largest drop in eight months in May, and Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) came up short on earnings. 

XRT’s daily chart shows the ETF doggedly hanging on to gains this week. Despite a flat week, the shares are holding onto the 100-day and 20-day moving averages. What’s more, the 20-day has flattened out after a six-week decline. The last time the 20-day turned higher was in February, which came at the beginning of a 34% rally that covered more than two months.

We’re not saying that XRT has another 30% rally in reserve. But a return to the April high above the $45 level would cover around 14% from yesterday’s close. And that’s not too bad at all.

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