Like the plotline to Revenge of the Nerds, battered consumer technology companies have been making big comebacks in recent years. The former butt of Wall Street jokes, BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY), has added its name to the list. Don’t get me wrong — no one is laughing at BBRY stock and its 65% year-to-date gains. But the question now is just how much investors can trust this turnaround.

The paradigm shift for BlackBerry the company and BlackBerry shares alike occurred in a very narrow time frame.

Up until the end of March, BBRY stock was virtually at parity with the January opener. Add in a few positive rumors and a well-received earnings report, and suddenly, BlackBerry has become great again.

I don’t begrudge speculators for their well-earned profits, I just doubt the initial catalyst is still sparking.

I say this from the perspective of someone who got BlackBerry very, very right on the bullish side of things. I called a bullish pennant formation in BlackBerry shares, and within days, they skyrocketed. There was ugliness, but I still liked what I saw. Now, there’s something gorgeous going on, but I don’t like what we’ve seen. I think we’re back to examining fundamentals, and while BlackBerry is improving on that end, it doesn’t justify 2017’s gains.

BlackBerry: “Better” Still Isn’t “Good”

InvestorPlace contributor Nicolas Chahine stated that “Fundamentally, I’ve lost track of what’s supposed to be the exciting part of BBRY.” I only bring it up because it’s a brilliant line, and its accuracy is confirmed through a look at the financials.

Ardent proponents of BBRY stock apparently have the ability to look into a different dimension. I say bless their souls because all I see is a generous heaping of red ink. For as excited as Wall Street got about the company’s most recent report, BlackBerry still posted a loss of $47 million.

And while I’m not an “earnings snob,” I do care about valuation enough to point out that BlackBerry shares trade at around 140 times forward guidance.

I’m also confused by management’s game plan.

BBRY has gone full switch to software and security, and there, the company is doing things that make sense. For instance, its QNX software is a growing part of the connected car, and Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is helping extend that business with an expansion of its current relationship.

But it’s still hanging onto the smartphone game via licensing partnerships, which makes sense insofar as it’s a higher-margin business that doesn’t require BlackBerry to do the manufacturing. There, we have entries like the KeyOne smartphone and its QWERTY keyboard. It’s like trying to sell a manual-transmission car in today’s automotive market. Sure, buyers exist, but it’s a limited consumer base.

In the meantime, BBRY still is suffering the necessary fallout from its business decisions, including a 38% drop in sales in its most recent quarter, not to mention a jump of 30% in administrative expenses.

Yes, things are improving on a few fronts, but BlackBerry is hardly good right now.

BBRY Stock Is the Ultimate Gamble

The most lucid argument in favor of BlackBerry comes from InvestorPlace contributor Will Ashworth. He has consistently argued that “the odds of a private equity buyer coming along and plunking down $9 billion for BBRY stock were a very real possibility.”

Mr. Ashworth further states that “You buy BlackBerry, and you don’t even have to go out and find a CEO to run the company. I’m not suggesting that Chen or any other chief executive is worth $9 billion, but the upside to doing this deal seems a lot higher than the downside.”

That may very well be the case. But it boils down to investment style. If you want to bank on a buyout pop, you can make that argument. If you want to bank on a fundamental turnaround in a technology company in the year 2017, you can make that argument. But they’re not high-probability shots, and that’s where BBRY stock becomes less compelling as a buy-and-hold investment, and really only attractive as a trading vehicle.

It doesn’t help that the markets are continuing to slowly melt up on low volume as we reach the summer months. The traditional period of underperformance could yank the broader indices lower, and if things get ugly, investors are going to start ringing the register.

Given that BBRY stock has provided an unexpected 65% in just a few months, that could be a likely source of profit-taking cash.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.