Today we get a read on sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and “altcoins”… plus encouraging volume trends for Cardano (ADA-USD) and the Binance (BNB-USD) exchange! Let’s get into it.
What’s Next for Bitcoin: $10,000 or $30,000?
While BTC is still stuck in second gear, around $20,000… Pollsters at Bloomberg checked in with 950 investors to ask: Which level will bitcoin trade at first? Will it fall another 50%, to $10,000…or gain 50%, to $30,000?
“Fall to $10,000” won the poll – but not by a mile: 60% of respondents said $10,000, while 40% said $30,000.
Bloomberg was also careful to gauge who this poll was talking to. When asked whether cryptos “are all garbage,” whether “cryptocurrencies are the future,” or where they might fall in-between… The respondents were also pretty split:
18% of professional investors said: “They are all garbage.” The biggest group, 32%, were “open-minded but skeptical.” 23% were “skeptical but involved anyway.” And 26% agreed: “Cryptocurrencies are the future.” Notably – just 4% of professionals called themselves “bitcoin maximalists.”
As for retail investors… Those respondents were more likely to pick the two most bearish responses, and less likely to sound bullish. For example, “Cryptocurrencies are the future” won just 23% of the retail investors. And just 2% were “bitcoin maximalists.”
Later in this issue: Our experts give 3 reasons why $30,000 is more likely than $10,000 – it’ll just take a while for BTC to make it there.
Speaking of Sentiment: Who Out There Is Still Eager to Trade Crypto?
Blockworks recently explored: “How Are Crypto Companies Adjusting Marketing Amid the Downturn?”
Better question: Who is most receptive to this marketing? Here are the demographics mentioned to Blockworks (by crypto exchanges, specifically):
“The median age of new crypto investors on Bitbuy has jumped from 34 in 2018 to 39 this year, including a three-year increase over the past 12 months.”
eToro “also intends to continue running television ads on channels such as CNBC.” I’d argue that this suggests eToro also sees an opportunity to branch out beyond millennials.
“Higher net worth individuals” are also in focus at Bitbuy and, I’d say, FTX (FTT-USD). Flipping through Architectural Digest yesterday, I spotted Gisele Bündchen in a print ad for FTX, alongside CEO Sam Bankman-Fried in his usual tube socks and New Balance sneakers. Architectural Digest, if you’ve never read it, is a gorgeous photobook of wealthy people’s homes, where to “get the look!” you’ll be spending $380 per throw pillow.
We also learn that “more female Bitbuy users are buyers than men, especially within altcoins.” While 56% of male users are buyers, 70% of women were – and women’s average trade was 17% higher over the past four years!
My take: I’m not sure that many people in the New Digital World have noticed or capitalized on this. But World of Women has, and it’s been highly successful! I think building on this successful marriage (sorry) between altcoins and women could provide quite a long-term boost.
Cardano “Sharks” Strongly Accumulating ADA for First Time Since February
On Saturday, the blockchain analysts at Santiment highlighted a trend that’s been going on for the past month: “Cardano Shark Addresses Have Begun to Come Alive, Major Whale Addresses Staying Flat.”
Santiment defines the Cardano whales as holding 100,000 or more ADA coins, while Cardano sharks hold 10,000-100,000 ADA (worth $4,500 to $45,000). Whales were more likely to accumulate ADA right during the May crypto crash – then mostly held tight in June…
Meanwhile, Cardano sharks did the opposite. Shark-sized wallets trickled lower in May, then since mid-June they’ve sharply accumulated for the first time since February!
Who was right? The cliché on Wall Street is that the rich and well-connected are the “smart money”… But this time, I think it’s the ordinary investors.
As I’ve written before: History suggests this is the time to make a play on ADA. When a major upgrade is just around the corner, ADA sees some of its strongest price action. And Cardano plans to make the “Vasil” hard fork of its blockchain by July 31, with “Hydra” scalability features coming this summer or fall.
Smart Policy: Zero Trading Fees Are A Big Hit At Binance
“From July 8, users will be able to enjoy fee-free trading on thirteen stablecoin and fiat combinations, including BTC/USDT, BTC/BUSD, BTC/USDC, BTC/EUR, BTC/TRY, and more,” Binance announced last week. All of the pairs involve bitcoin.
CoinDesk noted that this “is an extension of a program the largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume introduced in the U.S. last month” – and that Binance has seen an epic surge in trading volume since the policy began worldwide on Friday.
Impact: This move was good for lots of volume in BTC, generally – but not much price action:
Above we see that BTC didn’t move more than about 2% (in either direction) in the 48 hours after Binance zero fees. In fact, none of the other top cryptos fluctuated more than 5% in the 48-hour period, either.
Binance is also sensitive to the issue of its platform becoming an artificial manipulator of BTC prices. When someone on Twitter pointed out the initial volume spike in bitcoin, CEO Changpeng Zhao replied: “Think this is due to zero fees and people trying to gain VIP tiers. We will exclude Btc trading from VIP calculations. Remove all incentives to wash trade.”
Bottom line: My takeaway is simply about Binance and how it continues to dominate throughout…all of this. (Picture me gesturing widely across the entire New Digital World.)
Quote Of The Day:
“One of the reasons for the BTC price resilience over the past three weeks despite mass deleveraging [in crypto markets] is that BTC is uniquely undervalued today, across multiple metrics.”
– Luke Lango & Charlie Shrem, Crypto Investor Network
When Luke and Charlie talk about “mass deleveraging” going on in crypto today, they aren’t kidding. “The financial markets haven’t seen this level of broad deleveraging since the banking collapse of 2008,” they write to their Crypto Investor Network.
But unlike financial stocks in 2008, crypto has stabilized within weeks. This is where bitcoin being “uniquely undervalued” can help explain the situation. Luke and Charlie review all the different valuation metrics that are “consistent with previous bear market bottoms.”
Ultimately, that’s just one of three reasons to be bullish from here: “recent price action trends, current valuation metrics, and the evolving tech stock rebound [all] give us increased confidence in saying that BTC is working through a bottoming process right now and that the worst of the sell-off is over for cryptos,” conclude Luke and Charlie in Crypto Investor Network.
Now, we’re not out of the woods quite yet: “We are a bit concerned by a recent spike in Bitcoin futures open interest, which has climbed to levels not seen since November 2021 – when BTC topped out at nearly $70,000.”
But the latest Crypto Investor Network gives several bullish factors that “offset our concerns” and continue to suggest “price consolidation over the next 6 months, followed by a new boom cycle in 2023.”
Right now, their team’s putting together a whole list of Top Picks for this market. Click here now to see how Luke and Charlie find the elite cryptos; you’ll want to join the Crypto Investor Network now to get on the list for all the Top Picks.
On the date of publication, Ashley Cassell did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines. To have more news from The New Digital World sent to your inbox, click here to sign up for the newsletter.