Hello, Reader.
On Saturday, I wrote about the “if” of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. If it would hold. If global crude oil production would normalize. If there is still a bull case to be made for energy stocks.
My predictions were: Hopefully… not anytime soon… and yes.
In the last 48 hours, it seems that first “if” has become even more fragile. The U.S. announced it would blockade Iranian ports starting today, marking a significant escalation in tensions. U.S. crude oil jumped 8% to $104.24 per barrel, while Brent, the global benchmark, climbed 7% to $102.29.
But as I wrote this weekend, investors who panic out of their energy positions may find themselves on the wrong side of one of the most consequential structural shifts in the history of global energy markets.
I still believe this to be true.
Now, before we get to our weekly Smart Money roundup below, let’s turn to another headlining commodity:
Gold.
Like the energy market, the bull market in gold is not over. It is merely napping.
Or as Bob Dylan crooned in his 1976 classic song “Joey”: “He ain’t dead, he’s just asleep.”
Earlier this year, the gold market became frothy and overbought. But the ensuing correction – which knocked the gold price from $5,500 an ounce to a recent low of $4,200 – is building the foundation for a fresh move higher. Maybe not immediately, but eventually.
Nearly one year ago, I presented a bullish argument for gold and gold stocks in my Fry’s Investment Report service. To lay the foundation for that argument, I quoted the following words from the esteemed financial writer James Grant:
Gold is a bet on monetary disorder – indeed, on other kinds of disorder too, including fiscal, geopolitical and presidential.
That bet has been paying off very nicely – gaining 42% since then, or more than double the returns of the S&P 500.
But the recent two-month correction in the gold market raises an obvious question:
Is it time to close out the bet on gold, or add to it?
I recommend the latter, simply because the four disorders Grant identifies have not dissipated. If anything, they have grown more disorderly over the past year.
Of the four, fiscal disorder seems to be attracting the least attention in the financial press – even though it may be the most consequential one for the gold market.
Fiscal disorder is an elegant term for soaring government deficits and debts. When a nation’s finances spiral out of control and its creditors back away, that nation loses a significant portion of its freedom, its self-determination, and its power.
A debt crisis quickly becomes a currency crisis, and a currency crisis can destroy an entire economic foundation.
The U.S. is not yet on the threshold of a currency crisis, but it is inching toward the kind of fiscal disorder that could put sustained downward pressure on the dollar’s value.
But America’s rising indebtedness – and the waning appetite of foreign creditors to finance it – provides plenty of raw material for the “bet on gold” to keep paying off.
That is why we continue to hold several positions in our Fry’s Investment Report portfolio that provide exposure to the gold market.
The U.S. government’s financial predicament is not a crisis today. But it is a slow-motion reckoning that is becoming harder to ignore and more expensive to defer.
When the cost of servicing the national debt exceeds the defense budget, when foreign creditors quietly reduce their exposure, and when the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio rivals that of nations that have historically struggled to maintain the confidence of global bond markets, the warning signs are flashing.
Gold does not predict the timing of a reckoning, but it has an excellent historical record of rewarding those who recognized the signs early.
This is an opportune moment to add some gold exposure to your portfolio, if you have not already done so.
You can click here to learn about the three gold stocks that I recommend, especially one I favor as the lowest-risk option for investors who wish to increase their exposure to precious metals at current levels.
Now, let’s take a look back at what we covered here at Smart Money last week, including:
- Why perfection is often a sell signal.
- The bull case for the energy market.
- How we’re playing AI differently.
- Two different ways of looking at the same market.
Smart Money Roundup
Perfection Is a ‘Sell’ Signal in the Age of AI
April 12, 2026
If the market feels different lately, it is. AI is accelerating change – and making once-dominant companies obsolete faster than ever. From BlackBerry to Zoom, history shows that when a company fully “solves” yesterday’s problem, it’s often about to be replaced by something better.
Why the Energy Bull Case Is Still Intact
April 11, 2026
The prognosis for global oil and gas markets remains deeply unsettled, and investors who panic out of their energy positions may find themselves on the wrong side of one of the most consequential structural shifts in the history of global energy markets.
I’ll share why the recent ceasefire-driven selloff is hiding bigger supply problems that will likely keep oil and U.S. natural gas prices higher for longer… and why that means the energy bull market isn’t over.
We’re Not Done With AI – We’re Playing It Differently
April 9, 2026
The more that AI infiltrates our daily lives, the more we will crave uniquely human experiences. This shift away from tech at the height of its dominance is a profitable one that we’ve seen play out before. I used this strategy in the dot-com era… and I’m using it again today.
I Sold Nvidia. Louis Navellier Didn’t. Who Was Right?
April 8, 2026
I recently sat down with my colleague Louis Navellier to debate one question: Was selling Nvidia a mistake? What might surprise you is that the answer isn’t as simple as “yes” or “no.”
In fact, it reveals something far more important about how to navigate AI stocks right now…
How to Play the Market Tremors
Volatility often, and understandably, makes investors nervous. But some strategies are built to take advantage of it.
That’s a big focus of Market Tremors 2026…a new free presentation our partners at Stansberry Research are running this week.
Instead of trying to ride out every market swing, the approach they outline is more structured: Identify a setup, hold for a defined period (around 90 days), then exit and reset.
It’s systematic, repeatable, and designed for the kind of fast-moving market we’re in now. Even if you don’t adopt the strategy directly, this free presentation is a useful window into how some traders are adapting to today’s conditions and why the market’s rules keep changing.
Regards,
Eric Fry
