The headline U.S. and European stock indices broke key resistance areas following last week’s better-than-expected U.S. jobs report. But with the S&P 500 above 1600 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average near the 15000 mark, what’s next for the broader tape?
The longer the S&P 500 manages to stay above 1600 (funny as that seems to write), the higher the chances that its next upside target will be somewhere between 1640 and 1660. From where I sit, if last Friday’s post-report rally was to be a so-called “pop and drop” reaction, the drop should have already occurred, at least in part, by now.
To yours truly, the name of the game is to stay the trend, at least for another 20 to 40 points for now. The melt-up can continue as funds must chase the market higher and the retail investor is increasingly being left out of it all. When would it be time to get more defensive? Any significant one-day or multiday reversal formation should make you sit up in your chair and get more defensive for the near-term.
There are plenty of arguments to be made that the tape is at least near-term extended. For example, the S&P 500 is currently as much above its 200-day simple moving average as it was below it at the lows in 2009. Always consider both sides of the tape.
From a long-term perspective, note that the S&P 500 is now well past its previous all-time highs, and if the rotation into cyclical sectors continues, the run could continue higher from the longer-term time frames as well.
Last week, the rotation from more defensive sectors into cyclically exposed sectors became apparent. The below intraday chart from last Friday and yesterday clearly shows this. Note the defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples) tumbling while cyclicals rally.
Yesterday, a number of cyclical sectors such as industrials broke out past their 2013 highs. This too is not bearish for the time being, at least not for the medium-term, which of course doesn’t preclude any minor setbacks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is snuggling up with the 15000 mark, and already is well into all-time highs. The Dow’s previous all-time high near 14200 should act as first support on any pullback. This index also could have a couple of more percentage points to rise on pure momentum in the intermediate-term.