GM Stock: Could the Treasury Have Done Better?

The government has finally exited General Motors, but did it make the most of its bailout investment?

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The Treasury department just sold the last of its shares in General Motors (GM), making the federal government’s $49.5 billion bailout of America’s largest car company by revenue a footnote in automotive history.

GM185 GM Stock: Could the Treasury Have Done Better?For now, let’s forget the 1.2 million jobs and $34.9 billion in tax revenue the Center for Automotive Research says was saved by GM’s rescue. Today, I’d like to quickly focus on what kind of job the Treasury did divesting its 912 million shares since 2010.

Ditching the political rhetoric for a minute, let’s analyze the Treasury’s track record over the past three years and see whether the Treasury could have done better than “investing” in GM stock:

The Treasury’s GM Stock Position

According to the Treasury timeline, the government lent General Motors $49.5 billion. Further, it indicates that once GM emerged from bankruptcy protection in July 2009, its investment was restructured from loans to a combination of common and preferred stock as well as some debt, which ultimately was repaid in April 2010.

By the time GM went public in November 2010, the Treasury held 912.4 million shares of its common stock. GM also issued the Treasury 83.9 million Series A preferred stock in July 2009, which it bought at a discount of $1.4 billion. Excluding the preferred stock, its breakeven on its common stock prior to the IPO works out to $40 billion, or $43.84 per share. Bloomberg is routinely quoted in the press as having crunched the numbers and ascertained that the breakeven on the government’s investment in GM prior to the IPO was $43.67 per share.

Not knowing how Bloomberg parsed the numbers, I think we can safely assume the 17-cent spread is due to a slight difference in how this was calculated.

Original IPO

The Treasury sold 412.3 million shares in General Motors’ $33 IPO in November 2010 for a total of $13.5 billion. In the three years since, GM stock has gained 24%. For comparison’s sake, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has achieved a 63% total return. However, Ford (F), who bailout detractors consider the poster child of responsibility, has seen its stock appreciate by just 8%.

If the government hypothetically were to have kept the IPO shares through today, it would have generated an additional $3.2 billion on top of the $13.5 billion it received in the IPO.

On the flip side, had the Treasury instead took the $13.5 billion and bought F stock, it would have generated an additional $500 million — $2.7 billion less than GM.

Following this sale, the Treasury had a remaining 500 million shares of GM stock.

(As a note, GM also bought back its preferred shares from the Treasury for $25 per share, or $2.1 billion.)

2012 Election

As the election approached, GM stock was doing awful. At their lowest point, hit in July 2012, GM shares briefly dipped below the $20 level — almost 40% under GM’s IPO price. Naturally, the government was in no hurry to sell its stock given the optics.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, http://investorplace.com/2013/12/treasury-gm-stock/.

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