Broadly speaking, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) logged a positive January. Although unit sales fell a tiny amount, total year-over-year revenue was measurably higher thanks to sales of higher-priced and higher-margin trucks and SUVs. The respectable January numbers underscore what was largely seen as a decent fourth-quarter report posted last week.

So, why is Ford stock stuck in the mud, despite a decent start to the new year on the heels of a great 2016? Because, investors are looking beyond the headlines and don’t like what they see. They’re also taking Ford’s caution from a week ago at face value — 2017 isn’t apt to be as impressive as 2016 was.

And, there are two big reasons why it’s tough to expect big things from F stock this year.

Finally Falling Off the Fence

Last month, Ford — all of its brands — sold 172,612 vehicles, down 0.6% from Jan. 2015’s tally. The cars and trucks that were sold cost more, though; the average sales price was up nearly $2,500 to a figure that was almost a record.

The mixed message mirrored the previous quarter’s results, when Ford Motor Company topped revenue estimates, but merely met earnings estimates. Total vehicle sales fell by 68,000 units to 1.71 million, but operating margins for the North American division rolled in at a record 8.5%.

The results have allowed investors to interpret the glass as half-empty or half-full, though for the most part those investors have done neither; Ford stock is now trading right where it was at the end of 2015. That stagnation may be about to break, however, as traders start to come to grips with reality — it’s going to be near impossible for Ford to do better this year than it did last year, but it’s going to be quite easy for it to do worse.

Two red flags point in this dire direction.

Incentives Are Soaring: Yes, sales of Ford cars and trucks look like they’ve started 2017 as robustly as they ended 2016, but take a closer look at January’s (all markets) auto sales metrics. Discounts, or “incentives,” raced to $3,635 per automobile, up nearly 22% on a year-over-year basis. That’s a ton, by car industry standards.

It’s not a fluke, either. Incentives have been steadily rising since the beginning of last year, with the average discount rising in nine of 2016’s twelve months, according to Autodata. The implication is that the sustained demand for automobiles is an artificial one.

It’s not clear to what extent Ford has had to make these concessions, but it would be naive to think the automaker is an outlier to that pressure.

Ford Is Competing With Itself: As ironic as it may sound, Ford and its peers are about to become a victim of its own success. Their cars are of such high quality that the gently-used and barely-used models manufactured between two and five years ago present significant competition with sales of brand new models. J.D. Power recently concluded there will be 14 million vehicles that are five years old or less on the road this year, up 6% from 2016’s levels.

Just as troubling is the fact that the price of used cars fell 4% last year, which was the first measurable decrease since 2008. The number of cars coming off of leases in 2017 will be 9% higher than in 2016, and in 2016 it was 33% higher than 2015.

Further, car shoppers who would normally opt for a new car are buying more used cars instead. Experian calculated that through November of last year, so-called “prime” buyers — consumers with good credit — accounted for 48% of used car financing, up roughly 1% from late-2015. National Automobile Dealers Association economist Steven Szakaly estimates 300,000-400,000 car buyers will purchase a used vehicle rather than a new one. Neither Ford nor its competitors collect a single cent for those sales.

Bottom Line for Ford Stock

Just to be clear, Ford’s existence isn’t in jeopardy; it’s not going anywhere. The Ford dividend of 15 cents per share per quarter is well protected, too. F stock holders don’t have to lose sleep.

On the flip side, the company is going to have to wade through some serious cyclical soft patches, even if the broad economy doesn’t. Experian’s senior director for automotive finance, Melinda Zabritski, may have summed it up best, saying:

(Incentives) will put more downward pressure on used (cars). Then OEs will further lower new-vehicle prices. It could be a vicious cycle. Incentives are what everyone needs to watch.

Ford stock could be frustrating to hold until that vicious cycle ends.

As of this writing, James Brumley held a position in Ford Motor Company (F).