Should You Buy Boeing Co (BA) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

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Shares of Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) have soared since November. As an industrial company, Boeing sits squarely within the Trump rally. If you’re thinking of an iconic American brand that offers plenty of high-paying American manufacturing jobs, Boeing fits the bill. BA stock is up from $135 to $182 since the election.

Should You Buy Boeing Co (BA) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

Boeing stock has now reached new all-time highs. There is a lot to be excited about, particularly on the defense side of Boeing’s business. But, despite the new highs, it isn’t all good news for BA.

The strong dollar continues to weigh on Boeing’s competitiveness in commercial aircraft, and Trump may press a harder line on cost containment for defense projects. All things considered, can Boeing stock keep soaring, or should you take profits now?

BA Stock Cons

Overvalued U.S. Dollar: Boeing faces sharp competitive pressures in its commercial aircraft business. Boeing’s top competitor is European firm Airbus Group EA (OTCMKTS:EADSY), which primarily hires staff and manufactures goods within the EU. Since 2014, the Euro has fallen from 1.35 per dollar to 1.06 today.

Let’s suppose, for a moment, that it’s the year 2014 and a Boeing jet cost $100 million, while a competitor Airbus jet cost €75 million. After accounting for currency translation, the two actually cost the same. Today, however, Boeing’s jet would still cost $100 million, while Airbus’ €75 million jet now only costs $80 million USD.

In effect, Latin American, Asian and other such emerging market buyers are now paying 25% more premium to buy a Boeing jet versus the equivalent Airbus jet, compared to 2014 prices. Other smaller commercial jet makers are based in Canada and Brazil, and both of those countries’ currencies has also been devalued against the U.S. dollar. This competitive disadvantage has forced Boeing into round after round of layoffs to stay competitive on costs.

Expensive Stock: Not surprisingly, with BA at all-time highs, Boeing stock looks a little expensive. According to Gurufocus, over the past 15 years, BA stock has traded with a median 18.1 PE ratio. We’re at almost 24 today.

While the forward PE shows a significantly smaller premium to the median, you should still use caution chasing a stock that’s at all-time highs and is trading well above its historic valuation.

Also, industrial companies tend to be quite cyclical. Boeing’s profits have been up recently. The fall in oil prices in particular has helped, since it makes airlines more profitable. Airlines, seeing increased margins, are bulking up on capacity, putting in big new orders. However, airlines are unlikely to see these good times continue forever, and when they slow down Boeing’s profits will soften as well.

Trump Cost-Cutting: President Trump appears to be a double-edged sword for defense companies such as Boeing. On the one hand, Trump has frequently spoken of the need to beef up the country’s defense and take decisive action on national security. That sort of talk is great for BA stock.

However, a strong defense program doesn’t appear to equal a blank check. Trump has gone after both Boeing and Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) specifically, causing momentary sell-offs in both company’s stocks. Trump criticized Lockheed’s stealth fighter program, suggesting that it was “way, way behind schedule and many, many billions of dollars over budget.” On Boeing’s 747 Air Force One, Trump wrote: “[C]osts are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order.”

While Boeing has plenty of opportunity under a Trump presidency, delivering on time and under budget will be the key to avoiding volatility with the new executive.

BA Stock Pros

Big Dividend: Out of the 30 Dow Jones Index components, Boeing is among the top third in yield. BA stock currently pays a 3.1% dividend, and that’s even after the massive rally of late, as the most recent 30% dividend hike largely offsets the rising stock price.

Boeing’s management has grown its dividend remarkably since 2011. Back then, BA stock paid 42 cents per quarter in dividends. Just six years later, it now pays $1.42, more than triple.

A Boeing stock buyer from five years ago is now earning a 7.4% yield on cost. You can criticize the company for its fairly high 57% payout ratio. However, Boeing has shown great support for its income investors, and should earnings rise, expect management to fork over even bigger dividends in the future.

Share Buyback: Boeing’s capital return doesn’t stop with the dividend, either. The company is also heavily buying back BA stock from its public holders. Boeing stock outstanding is down from 768 million shares in 2013 to just 612 million today. That’s close to a 20 percent decline in less than four years.

Making the buyback even sweeter, management bought back Boeing stock at great prices. Since 2014, BA stock has generally traded around $125 per share. With BA stock up past $180 now, Boeing earned strong returns on that capital.

The company has largely managed to avoid taking on more long-term debt while returning so much money to shareholders. Though, admittedly, the company’s book value is essentially zero due to other obligations such as pension debt.

Trump Military Build-up: As for many companies exposed to Trump, the new president is both a plus and a minus; Trump’s cost-cutting measures aren’t good news for spendthrift defense contractors, but while margins are likely to fall with Trump in power, top-line revenue could surge.

Defense contractors got a boost with recent news that the Trump administration would like to increase spending on war readiness equipment and supplies. Boeing’s Super Hornet jet could be a particular winner. The White House is reportedly considering swapping out some of Lockheed’s more expensive F-35 fighters for Boeing’s option.

Trump also notably said “God Bless Boeing” in a recent speech in South Carolina. It seems, then, that Boeing should have plenty of chances to win contracts from the Trump administration.

Verdict

BA stock offers a strong yield. Even with its recent run, Boeing stock still pays a good dividend, and one that is hiked nicely each year. Additionally, the company aggressively bought back stock in a well-timed move.

However, aside from hoping that Trump is an unmitigated plus for Boeing stock, what moves the stock higher now? The strong dollar devastates Boeing’s competitive position (just look at all the layoffs) and BA stock looks mighty expensive after the recent run-up. I’d pass.

As of this writing, Ian Bezek did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/03/should-you-buy-boeing-co-ba-stock-3-pros-3-cons/.

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