Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors have to be elated with the performance of shares last month — they put out a roughly 11% gain in March compared to a nearly flat S&P 500. TSLA stock has tacked on another 7% so far in April, even with sluggish trading that has it slightly off its fresh all-time highs.

On April 4, the Tesla stock price reached above $300 for the first time since its initial public offering in June 2010. Tesla’s market cap has gotten so frothy that I recently wondered whether Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) could, or would, buy the maker of electric vehicles.

Like the Tesla Model S and Model X, it feels like Tesla stock can go only so far before it runs out of gas … no pun intended. But for all its momentum, it’s worth exploring the idea of $400 as a next stop, as much as it is $200.

Let’s look at what would have to happen to hit either target, and which seems likelier.

Scenario #1: TSLA Stock Goes to $400

Tesla has been rising in 2017 in anticipation of the Model 3 — a relatively inexpensive electric vehicle that will bring more car buyers to Tesla — hitting the car market.

Although the starting price for a Model 3 is $35,000, San Diego data expert Ben Sullins suggests most of the 400,000-plus reservation holders will likely pay between $45,000-$55,000 for their vehicles once you add options most drivers want including an upgraded battery that gets a 300-mile range instead of the standard 215.

Not only is the average price of the Model 3 expected to be higher than $42,000 — the number CEO Elon Musk tweeted in April 2016 — but the average price of the Model S is likely to be as high as $90,000.

If you own TSLA stock, this is a good news/bad news kind of situation.

The good news? Revenue will be higher than anticipated providing a greater possibility that the Model 3 will ultimately make money. The bad news … I’ll cover in my discussion about Tesla stock and a $200 scenario below.

For $400 to be a possibility, its current stock price has to make sense, because if it doesn’t, a drop to $200 becomes more likely than rising to $400. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently discussed why he believes Tesla stock deserves a $300 share price:

“The sooner investors view Tesla as a transportation/infrastructure company rather than as just a car company. A significant portion of our $305 price target can be accounted for by the value of Tesla Mobility, an on-demand and highly automated transportation service we anticipate to be launched at low volume in 2018. Our DCF valuation of the core automotive business is $233.”

Of the 16 analysts with 12-month price targets, the high is $375, the low is $155 and the median price target is $245. From this perspective, it’s clear that many analysts don’t view Tesla in the way that Jonas does.

I’ve always been a fan of Tesla and CEO Elon Musk and do think it’s a stock most investors 45 and younger should consider for their retirement portfolio. But I could see why some analysts see a darker future.

Scenario #2: TSLA Stock Drops to $200

Question: How many vehicles has Tesla delivered in the past five years? Answer: 183,000.

Question: How much money has Tesla made the past five years? Answer: Zero. It has lost $2.8 billion, hence the need for additional debt and equity raises.

Can you see where I’m going with this?

Tesla makes no money, is on the hook to deliver 400,000 Model 3s in the next couple of years, yet has managed to deliver an average of just 1,088 vehicles per week over the past five years.

Elon Musk says Tesla will produce 10,000 Model 3s by 2018. How does it expect to get to this number when it’s never produced more than one-tenth of that in an average week?

That right there is the million-dollar question, and a big reason why some analysts are very wary about its current share price.

“Tesla’s overall customer experience — which we believe is not strong today — and could be further pressured as the company migrates to selling to a more mass-market consumer,” a Bernstein analyst recently wrote in a note to investors. “A poor ramp and customer experience on Model 3 could not only impact Tesla’s near-term financials, but undermine the franchise longer-term.”

The analyst is saying, “Ford sold 235,000 vehicles in the U.S. in March; Tesla produced less than that over five years. Ford’s made $30.8 billion over the past five years; Tesla’s lost billions… and it could get worse.”

Ford stock is valued at 0.3 times sales while Tesla’s P/S ratio is 20 times that. When you look it from this perspective, it’s hard to get excited about a $400 share price.

It’s especially true when you consider how much pressure the company’s facing with the launch of the Model 3. If the Model 3 doesn’t get the same kind of reviews from consumer product testing groups as the Model S gets, Tesla shareholders will look back on $300 as the price at which they should have sold.

Bottom Line on Tesla

As I said in March, I think TSLA stock could hit $500 by this time in 2018 on its way to $1,000, but only if the Model 3 is a success. I think it will be.

As such, I think bulls can get excited. A $400 price target is much likelier than $200.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.