CZR Stock: Has Lady Luck Dumped Caesars Entertainment? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

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The conventional wisdom in gaming circles is that the house always wins — particularly since a recovery in Las Vegas appears to be helping casinos blunt the pain of declining gambling revenue in Macau.

czr stockWith no Macau exposure and high-profile properties on the Las Vegas Strip, the odds seemed likely that Caesars Entertainment (CZR) could to ride its strong U.S. properties to greater profits now. But as columnist Richard Roeper famously mused: “Sometimes the 3-1 favorite loses. That’s why they call it gambling…”

So why has CZR stock been on a tear this week, gaining more than 20% since Tuesday? Chalk it up to news that Caesars cut a debt restructuring deal with its senior creditors to place its largest operating unit into Chapter 11 by mid-January. That’s positive news given CZR’s nearly $23 billion in total debt – the prearranged bankruptcy deal would cover $18.3 billion of that total.

Given these developments, is it time to roll the dice on CZR stock? Here are three pros and three cons:

CZR Stock Pros

Caesars Acquisition (CACQ) Is Growing: CZR owns a 58% stake in CACQ, and has benefited from its $2.8 million in third-quarter earnings and its exposure to online gaming. Although 2 cents per share is hardly a gain to write home about, CACQ’s interactive gaming operations surged 105% year-over-year – potentially rising as an engine for growth.

Vegas Is a (Comparatively) Hot Hand: Las Vegas continues to be a draw for tourists — local officials say some 40 million visitors could visit the city this year. As millennials eschew gambling in favor of other forms of entertainment, casino owners are diversifying into boutique hotels, clubs and concert venues. CZR has wagered $550 million on its Linq project — the centerpiece of which is its High Roller Ferris wheel (think London Eye over Vegas).

CZR Is Slashing Costs:Caesars’ Chairman and CEO Gary Loveman plans to cut costs and increase the company’s cash flow by at least $250 million next year. While some layoffs are expected, most employees at the company’s nine hotels on the Las Vegas Strip are likely to be spared.

CZR Stock Cons

Ugly Earnings Miss: CZR reported grim third-quarter earnings on Monday — a $908.1 million loss on $2.2 billion in revenue. That translates into a loss of $6.29 a share — Wall Street was expecting a loss of $1.47 per share.

Atlantic City Meltdown: CZR is a huge player in Atlantic City, which has fallen on hard times with the approval of gambling in neighboring states, such as Pennsylvania and New York. The company closed its Showboat casino in mid-September and its Harrah’s casino in Mississippi over the summer.

This House Doesn’t Always Win: Caesars Palace suffered from more than $39 million of unfavorable hold in the third quarter. Loveman noted that this “frustrating period of bad luck” has continued to impact operations in the fourth quarter. Indeed, CZR estimates the impact of unfavorable hold in the second half of this year to amount to more than $85 million. Add to that $20 million in bad debt expenses and a small decline in volume and it is easy to see why CZR’s operations are struggling.

Verdict

CZR had been taken private by TPG Capital and Apollo Global Management (APO) back in 2008, before the bottom fell out of casino stocks. But that move cost more than $30 billion and left CZR playing from behind ever since. Not even an IPO in 2012 could lighten the load. If CZR can dump $20 billion of debt carried by the Caesars Entertainment unit, it could rise above its struggles.

But the best play for most investors is to fold.

As of this writing, Susan J. Aluise did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/11/czr-stock-lady-luck-caesars-entertainment-pros-cons/.

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