It’s been nothing but disappointment for Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) stock on Wall Street so far.

The IPO went well, but after that, it’s been down and out. Snap is now 3-for-3 on disastrous earnings reports as a public company. Growth is decelerating at an alarming rate. Operating expenses are booming and management is now desperate enough to attempt a complete redesign of the app.

To state the obvious,  you don’t completely redesign something that is working. As the old saying goes, it it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.

SNAP stock is broken. I won’t rule out the possibility that this stock will make a Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) like surge over the next 12 months due to a successful redesign, but I place the odds of that happening as quite minimal. The most likely outcome for SNAP over the next 12 months is that revenue growth continues to come down, operating expenses continue to go up, advertisers and users continue to migrate to Instagram, engagement falls, and the redesign is a miss that causes a user-churn problem.

That makes SNAP stock, trading at nearly 20-times this year’s sales estimate, despite having no clear path to profitability, a must-avoid at these levels.

Can SNAP Stock Be the Next FB?

Bulls continually point out the fact that it took Facebook a while to figure out the optimal way to monetize its huge user base. Facebook finally figured that out with mobile advertising, but it was about 300 days into Facebook’s public life before FB stock passed above its IPO price.

SNAP stock is only 180 days into its life as a publicly traded company. The company still has time. There is definitely a possibility that Snap successfully redesigns its app, grows engagement, attracts advertisers and gets back on track to unseating Facebook over the next 12 months.

But that possibility is small. Snap today just doesn’t act, look or sound anything like Facebook from 4 years ago.

When Facebook figured out how to optimally monetize its user base, the social media app had 700 million daily active users and was adding about 30 to 50 million new daily actives every quarter.

Snap only has 178 million daily active users and is adding just 5 million new daily actives every quarter.

Facebook was also profitable back then. In a big way. Operating profit margins were hovering around 30%.

Snap is far from being profitable. Operating loss last quarter was more than double revenues.

Facebook’s revenue growth was actually accelerating through the back-half of 2012 and into 2013. Snap’s revenue growth is decelerating quickly.

Perhaps most importantly, Facebook wasn’t competing against Facebook back in 2013. There was no other giant social media platform that Facebook had to compete against. Facebook was already the biggest and baddest game in town.

Today, Snap is awash in a world overly-saturated with social media apps. And it’s on the smaller side.

All in all, there are just far too many differences between 2013 Facebook and 2017 Snap to reasonably assume Snap stock is due for a Facebook-like break out over the next 12 months.

Bottom Line on SNAP Stock

If you throw the Facebook comp out the window, there really isn’t much to chew on with Snap stock.

It’s a teenage-focused, niche social media app that is struggling to compete at scale with platforms that are much larger and have far more reach. An app redesign threatens to upset the faithful core-user base, which could easily opt for Instagram over Snap and not lose much (if anything).

Advertisers understand this, and realize they have really nothing to gain from advertising on both Instagram and Snap. So they experimented with both. Now that experimental stage is over, and Snap’s ad growth is crumbling. That means advertisers are fleeing Snap and doubling down on Instagram.

Investors should do the same thing.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB.