Tesla Inc Stock Is a Dip Buy for Sure, Here’s Why

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Under-promise and over-deliver. That is usually a recipe for success for companies on Wall Street. Management sets beatable expectations. The company then comes out and smashes those expectations. Analysts go, “Wow”. Estimates come up. Upgrades flood in. Investors buy in packs. The stock heads higher. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) seems to have flipped this script on its head in the hope that TSLA stock will follow.

tesla stock TSLA stock

As opposed to under-promising and over-delivering, Elon Musk and co. consistently over-promise and under-deliver. And yet, it works for the company. Over the past year, TSLA stock is up 60% versus a 23% gain for the S&P 500.

Why? Multiple reasons (it is a cult stock with an avid fan-base, Elon Musk is looked at by many as a visionary, and the company is attacking tomorrow’s biggest markets), none of which disappeared after the company’s botched third quarter earnings report.

Some of them may have lost their luster, which is why the stock is trading below $300 for the first time since May. But with time, they will appear shiny again, and TSLA stock will bounce back.

The Bull Is Stronger Than the Bear

TSLA stock is perhaps the most polarizing stock on Wall Street. The bear thesis is pretty strong. It is a money-losing operation that keeps pushing off the prospect of sustained profitability. It is a car company that is trading at nearly 5-times sales (other major car companies trade well under 1-times sales). Competition is coming up in a big way. The whole industry might lose a massive tailwind if federal tax credits for electric vehicles in the US get slashed (look at what happened to EV sales in Georgia when that state cut its $5,000 EV tax credit in June 2015).

Plus, Model 3 ramp is disappointingly slow.

But the bull thesis is even stronger.

Yes, it is a money-losing operation, but most hyper-growth stories are money-losing operations. At scale, TSLA could generate huge profits.

TSLA stock does trade at a huge premium to other car companies, but sales at other car companies are (at best) inching up by a few percent a year. TSLA is expected to experience sales growth of 70% in each of the next two years.

Competition is coming, but this is a huge space with accelerating growth. From 2012 to 2016, the EV market in the United States grew by 32% per year. So far this year, that growth rate is trending in the 45% range, according to Peter O’Connor of the Union of Concerned Scientists. So not only is the market growth big, but it is also accelerating.

Moreover, if that 40%-plus growth rate persists for the next six years, we are looking at just 10% auto market penetration in the US. That is still very small. In forward-thinking countries like Norway, EVs represent more than 40% of total new car sales. Then there is the whole fact that governments across Europe and Asia are starting to set goals for 100% EV sales over the next several years.

Put it all together, and even with big competition, Tesla should be able to sustain huge 50%-plus revenue growth rates for the next several years.

The slashing of EV tax credits is a potential near-term headwind. Georgia did see EV sales collapse from 1,400 vehicle per month to 100 per month after the state did away with its $5,000 EV tax credit. But this is a political wildcard. This is no guarantee of EV tax credits being repealed. Also, it feels more like a near-term headwind than a long-term one. Secular trends in EV adoption feel too strong to be offset for long by the elimination of a tax credit.

And while Model 3 ramp has been slow, this is just part of what Musk has described as “production hell”. The company has successfully navigated through this production hell before, and will do so again with the Model 3 and subsequent vehicle launches.

Bottom Line on TSLA Stock

I don’t think it will bounce anytime soon. The $300 level was a critical psychological level for the stock. The fact that it is consistently trading below it tells me that investor demand remains depressed.

But I do think this an opportunity to accumulate for the long-term. TSLA has perhaps the most favorable multi-year growth outlook of any large cap tech stock. That means TSLA stock should head higher in the long-term.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TSLA.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/11/tsla-stock-dip-buy/.

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