Jump on the Netflix, Inc. Bandwagon! — But Maybe Not Right Now

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NFLX stock - Jump on the Netflix, Inc. Bandwagon! — But Maybe Not Right Now

Source: via Netflix

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) has fallen into a pattern since summer 2016 — and it’s not a bad one. Another quarter, another subscriber beat, another rally. NFLX stock has jumped from under $100 to above $250 in this time frame.

And this rally isn’t showing signs of ending any time soon. As long as the internet TV transition continues to accelerate and Netflix continues to invest in original content to grow its dominance, then NFLX stock will track higher.

Right now, however, the stock is up nearly 35% in just a few weeks. So investors may want to wait for a dip before buying in.

But they should buy in — Netflix is only going to continue to grow.

Here’s a deeper look.

Fourth-Quarter Numbers Were Impressive

Netflix just reported really strong fourth-quarter numbers that underscore the company’s secular growth narrative.

Despite price hikes, the streaming giant still added more than 8 million new subscribers in Q4, far better than what the Street was looking for (6.3 million). 8 million was also the company’s best net add quarter in recent history. Last Q4, Netflix only added 7 million, so growth is clearly accelerating.

This is a strong read that Netflix demand is resilient to price hikes. So long as the company continues to grow its value proposition via quality original content, then consumers will pay more for Netflix.

That is bullish for the long term growth narrative. It means Netflix is in control of the price hike lever. The streaming giant can pull that lever at any time the company wants to add incremental revenue and boost margins.

Mindbogglingly, this subscriber growth acceleration in spite of price hikes isn’t just happening in the international markets. Netflix actually added more domestic subs this quarter (1.98 million) than the year ago quarter (1.93 million). They are also expected to add more domestic subs next quarter (1.45 million) than the year ago quarter (1.42 million).

That is pretty crazy to think about.

Netflix Subscriber Numbers Will Keep Climbing

Netflix is supposed to be nearing peak subscriber levels in the US (55 million). But growth is still accelerating. Why? Because cord cutting is still accelerating.

Netflix continues to bolster is value prop by adding more and more quality original content to its platform. Meanwhile, its $8-14 price point pales in comparison to the $100 monthly bill consumers are paying for cable. Therefore, the more content Netflix adds to its platform, the better its $8-14 price point looks against cable’s $100 cost.

The end result is consumers ditching their cable package, cutting the cord, and adopting Netflix. That means more users in the US, which means more recurring revenue and higher profits.

The long-term bullish implication of this growth acceleration in the already deeply-penetrated U.S. market is that Netflix’s international growth potential is a lot bigger than people initially thought.

The international business is ramping with great pace — 6.36 million net adds last quarter versus 5.12 million net adds a year ago. Given how the U.S. market is much more deeply penetrated and growth is still accelerating there, international subscriber growth acceleration will persist for many, many years to come.

Again, that means more users, more recurring revenue, and higher profits.

All in all, Netflix’s fourth-quarter numbers underscored the secular bull thesis that this is an accelerating growth story. The best is yet to come because the international market is so sparsely penetrated.

If Netflix can replicate its domestic success in international markets, then this company is on track to deliver explosive earnings growth over the next several years. That will lead to a much higher NFLX stock price.

Bottom Line on NFLX Stock

All that sounds great. But you might want to wait before jumping on the NFLX bandwagon.

The stock has roared to all-time highs quite quickly. Just a few weeks ago, this stock was mired in competitive concerns and traded below $200.

It’s up a whopping 35% since then.

This rally may have a natural pull-back in the near-term, but that dip will be bought in bulk by investors. This growth story is just too good, and the growth runway is just too long for investors not to bid NFLX stock up.

Long-term, NFLX stock will head higher. Much higher.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NFLX.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/01/jump-netflix-bandwagon-not-now/.

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