Last week, technology giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported robust third quarter numbers, and everyone got excited. It was yet another double beat and raise quarter for Microsoft stock that underscored the fact that this company is successfully executing on its cloud-first turnaround strategy.

As a result, analysts and investors cheered. Price targets were raised and Microsoft stock headed higher. But let’s put this move in context. At the end of January, Microsoft stock hit $95.

Now, Microsoft stock is below $95.

That isn’t much of a move. Especially if you look at other tech giants in that time frame. Since the end of January, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is up 8%, while Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is up more than 15%.

In other words, MSFT stock isn’t as exciting as everyone makes it out to be. And at the mid-$90’s, this stock is fully valued for steady growth and margin expansion over the next several years.

For those reasons, I’m not a buyer here.

Here’s a deeper look:

Microsoft Cloud Isn’t Killing Amazon

MSFT bulls keep pounding on the table that Microsoft’s cloud business is on fire and stealing market share away from market leader Amazon. That is true. Microsoft’s cloud business is benefiting from a confluence of tailwinds which are super-charging growth, and Azure has been able to maintain a growth rate in the ~90% to ~100% range for the past several quarters.

But another part of this is that Amazon is so big and so dominant in the cloud market that it is only natural for other players to gain market share. After all, no one really expected Amazon to maintain 70% market share in the cloud market.

Therefore, while Microsoft’s cloud business is on fire, this whole narrative of the company stealing Amazon’s thunder is overstated. The more accurate narrative here is that Microsoft is ramping its cloud business alongside everyone else in this space.

This does guarantee MSFT a healthy growth trajectory over the next several years. But nothing of the hyper-growth kind. Most of the company’s business segments outside of Office 365, Dynamics 365, Azure, and LinkedIn are growing in the 0% to 20% range.

In other words, Microsoft is one part hyper-growth cloud business, and 50 parts mild growth businesses. That doesn’t make MSFT an exciting growth company. It makes MSFT a stable growth company with an exciting aspect.

Microsoft Stock Is Fully Valued

At current levels, Microsoft stock is priced appropriately considering its growth prospects as a stable growth company with a hyper-growth cloud aspect.

Revenue growth has been trending in the 10-13% range for the past quarters. This won’t get much better because the company’s three biggest growth drivers (Office 365, Dynamics 365, and Azure) are all experiencing a slowing growth pattern that is mostly the result of the law of large numbers.

As such, revenue growth of 10% per year over the next several years seems like the most likely forward growth trajectory.

Revenues this year could hit $110 billion, assuming MSFT tops estimates yet again next quarter. If revenues grow around 10% per year over the next five years, that would put revenue in fivce years at $177.2 billion.

Operating margins are charging higher, mostly due to operating expense leverage. This leverage should continue thanks to healthy revenue growth. But the gross margin drivers don’t look as strong, as Azure has lower margins. Thus, operating margins should be able to head higher from this year’s 31% base (trailing three quarters), but not by much.

Overall, 35% operating margins in 5 years seems achievable. A 35% operating margin on $177.2 billion in revenues implies operating profits of roughly $62 billion in 5 years. Taking out 16% for taxes and dividing by a presumably reduced share count of 7.5 billion, that equates to just shy of $7 in earnings per share.

A market-average growth multiple of 20-times forward earnings on that $7 earnings base implies a four-year forward price target of $140. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a present value in the mid-$90’s.

Bottom Line on Microsoft Stock

It isn’t a big growth company. It is a stable growth company with a big growth component.

MSFT stock is appropriately priced considering that reality. As such, I am neither a buyer nor a seller at current levels.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN.