Netflix, Inc. Really Is Worth More Than Both Comcast and Disney

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Netflix stock - Netflix, Inc. Really Is Worth More Than Both Comcast and Disney

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For the first time ever, hyper-growth streaming media giant Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is worth more than traditional media giants Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS). As of this writing, Netflix stock has a market cap of $152 billion. Disney stock has a market cap of $151.5 billion.

And Comcast stock has a market cap of $145 billion.

It was only a matter of time, but does this really make sense?

It does. To a certain extent.

Although Netflix’s revenues this year are expected to be just $16 billion, versus $90 billion at Comcast and nearly $60 billion at Disney, Netflix is a hyper-growth company with a ton of subscribers, ramping profitability and a bright future aligned with secular growth trends in streaming television.

In the long-run, these secular growth trends imply that Netflix will be a more valuable company than both Comcast and Disney. But here and now with a $350 price tag, Netflix stock seems to have overshot itself.

Here’s a deeper look:

Growth Matters

Everything is going streaming, and there really is no stopping this trend. Streaming television is cheaper than traditional television. It is less bulky, more convenient and more hassle (and wire) free. Streaming television also has a bunch of original content which is easily on par with, if not better than, what is offered through traditional television.

As such, streaming is the future. And Netflix is the face of streaming, while Disney and Comcast are struggling to compete on the streaming front.

This is apparent when looking at the numbers.

Netflix grew revenues by 40% last quarter, while earnings rose 60% year-over-year. Comcast’s revenue growth last quarter was 10%. Disney’s revenue growth was 6%. Earnings growth at both companies was less than 25%.

In other words, Disney and Comcast are growing at a fraction of the rate of Netflix. Because present valuations are a reflection of future growth expectations, it only makes sense that bigger-growth but smaller Netflix is being valued in the same ball-park as lower-growth but bigger Disney and Comcast.

Netflix Stock Isn’t That Much More Expensive

If you look at forward valuations with the understanding that streaming is the future of entertainment consumption and that Netflix is the face of streaming, then it is easy to see that while Netflix stock might be presently overvalued, it is only a matter of time before Netflix becomes permanently more valuable than Disney and Comcast.

Disney’s earnings this year are expected to be $6.90 per share. Comcast’s earnings this year are expected to be $2.49 per share. Assuming both of these companies figure out their streaming efforts and offset cord-cutting pain, revenue growth should come back into the picture and stay around 5-8% for each company.

Renewed revenue growth should bring margin expansion back into the picture, as well, and that should lead to roughly 10% earnings growth for Disney and Comcast over the next five years.

If so, that would put Disney earnings in five years at $11.10, and Comcast earnings in five years at $4. Thus, Disney stock presently trades at 9-times earnings that are five years out, while Comcast stock presently trades at 8-times earnings that are 5 years out.

Netflix is a much different beast. Revenue growth is running around 40% and not slowing. Subscriber growth remains as robust as ever. Margins are ramping higher.

Assuming Netflix’s low-price, enhanced-convenience, and strong-original-content offering wins out over traditional TV in the long-run, then Netflix is a company that is easily looking at 20%-plus revenue growth over the next five years with strong margin drivers. Those strong margin drivers could easily propel 40-50% revenue growth over the next five years.

Earnings this year are expected to be $2.85. At the midpoint, then, earnings could be around $18.30 in five years. That means Netflix stock is presently trading at 19-times earnings that are five years out.

That still seems expensive, and I’m not saying Netflix stock is cheap here. Indeed, Netflix does look susceptible to a major pullback considering its five year forward valuation is more than double Disney and Comcast’s five year forward valuation.

But in the long-run, it is only a matter of time before Netflix is more valuable than both Disney and Comcast due to the company’s leadership position in streaming.

Bottom Line on Netflix Stock

I’ve said for a while now that Netflix is worth somewhere around $330. Thus, at $350, I think this stock has overshot itself and that the price tag is no longer supported by fundamentals.

But will Netflix stock eventually get to $350 and then some? Yes. Just as Netflix will eventually and permanently be worth more than both Disney and Comcast.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long DIS. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/05/netflix-stock-comcast-disney/.

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