Netflix, Inc.: Forget America. It’s the Rest of the World That Counts

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Netflix stock - Netflix, Inc.: Forget America. It’s the Rest of the World That Counts

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As if Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) needs any help, the May 21 announcement that President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama have signed a production deal with the video-streaming service, has added $3 billion dollars in market cap to Netflix stock.

So enraged are conservatives by the announcement, they’ve started a boycott of Netflix content and its stock.

Good luck with that!

I’ve got nothing against your right to boycott Netflix, it’s just that you’re not going to make a dent in the company’s success — not by a long shot. Here’s why.

Netflix’s U.S. Subscribers

Netflix’s U.S. subscriber base growth continues to slow. Over the past four quarters, Netflix grew its paid U.S. subscribers by 11.6% to 55.09 million. Five years ago, Netflix grew its Q1 2013 paid U.S. subscribers over the previous four quarters by 26.8%, more than double the rate in 2018.

However, before you rub your hands in glee thinking how detrimental a boycott would be to Netflix stock, consider that the first quarter of 2018 saw its U.S. paid subscribers grow by 4.3%, the highest sequential growth rate in a long time.

As my colleague, Luke Lango likes to say, “Good content equals good subscriber growth.”

Adding the Obama’s productions to the pile only strengthens Netflix’s content offerings regardless of whether you agree with their political leanings.

Netflix is performing better in the U.S. than it has in some time; a boycott at this moment is like standing in front of a runaway train and thinking it’s going to stop. It isn’t.

But that’s not the biggest reason why a boycott will have absolutely zero effect on Netflix.

Netflix’s International Subscribers

This is the runaway train because people outside of the U.S. actually like the Obamas. They’re going to be happy about the recent announcement.

In Q1 2018, Netflix had 63.82 million international paid subscribers, 41.9% higher than in Q1 2017 and 10.4% higher than Q4 2017. It now has 16% more international paid subscribers than the U.S. paid subscribers. And the runway for further growth is a long one.

“If you look at the penetration that Netflix has in all of the different … countries that it’s in, it’s still really early in terms of penetrating those audiences,” Michael Graham, who specializes in internet and media companies, told CNBC. “They’re going to be able to continue to grow the subscriber base.”

One analyst sees Netflix growing its total paid subscriber base from 125 million in 2018 to 360 million by 2030, accounting for 35% of all broadband users outside of China.   

Currently, international streaming has a contribution margin of 15.3%, less than half the U.S. at 38.3%. You have to go all the way back to Q1 2012 to get a similar contribution margin in the U.S.

That’s six years of growth.

At a conservative growth rate of 25% per year, Netflix will have 243.5 million international paid subscribers by 2024 and contribution margin similar or perhaps even higher than in the U.S.

There’s that runaway train again. 

Bottom Line on Netflix Stock

In March, I highlighted operating profit per paid subscriber — $1.50 in 2012 and $6.93 in 2017 — as the one metric investors ought to be watching on a quarterly basis. I reasoned that as long as it’s going up, Netflix’s share price would follow.

The company’s trailing 12-month operating profit is $1.03 billion or $8.23 per paid subscriber, 18.8% higher than in Q4 2017.

Like I said, good luck with that boycott.

As of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/05/netflix-stock-forget-american-rest-world-counts/.

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