When it comes to investing in streaming giant Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), follow the original content.
I’ve said this time and time again. When the Netflix original content line-up in a quarter is good, NFLX smashes quarterly subscriber estimates and Netflix stock heads higher. Conversely, when the Netflix original content line-up in a quarter is sub-par, NFLX misses quarterly subscriber estimates and NFLX stock tanks.
This trend started back in July 2016 when Netflix launched Stranger Things. That Netflix original was a huge hit. A few months later, Netflix reported blowout third-quarter numbers. Netflix stock soared to $120, breaking out of what had turned into a multi-month sideways trading pattern.
Ever since then, Netflix’s original content has been very good. Not surprisingly, Netflix has reported subscriber beat quarter after subscriber beat quarter. And NFLX stock has roared higher.
Will this trend continue? I think so. Netflix’s original content over the past several months has been very good. Moreover, the forthcoming original content line-up this summer looks promising.
As such, it looks like original content will be able to power Netflix stock higher over the next several months.
Here’s a deeper look:
A Look at Recent Netflix Original Content
Perhaps the most loved piece of Netflix original content released over the past several months has been On My Block. The coming-of-age comedy received very high user scores on both IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes, and seems to have been well-liked by pretty much anyone who saw it.
Lost in Space was another strong Netflix original over the past several months. It has a pretty robust 30,000-plus votes on IMDb with an average rating of 7.2. That qualifies it as a both a good and widely watched Netflix original. It also has a fairly high 74% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.
Documentary-enthusiasts loved Evil Genius: The True Story of America’s Most Diabolical Bank Heist. Although overall vote volume is not high, average scores across both IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes are very high.
Season 2 of international Netflix original hit 3% debuted recently, and it was as well-received as the first season. Average score for Season 2 versus Season 1 is somewhat lower on IMDb, and somewhat higher on Rotten Tomatoes. Across all platforms, the average score for both seasons is very high.
Money Heist, whose second season debuted in late 2017, remains in the “Popular on Netflix” category. That is a very good sign. Not only is Money Heist a particularly well-liked Netflix original, but it is also an international Netflix original. Thus, staying popularity of Money Heist speaks volumes about Netflix’s international growth.
Season 3 of romantic comedy Love received very high remarks on both IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes. Scores from Season 3 are actually largely higher than scores from Season 2 (and Season 2’s scores were pretty high across the board).
Teen-oriented shows Everything Sucks and The End of the F***ing World also received high-remarks on IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes, a sign that Netflix continues to win over the all-important teen demographic.
Overall, from coming-of-age dramas to science fiction thrillers to documentaries to romantic comedies to international favorites, it looks like the line-up of Netflix original content has been quite good and diverse over the past several months.
A Look at Upcoming Netflix Original Content
While Netflix’s original content over the past several months has been very good, the company’s original content line-up heading into the summer looks even more exciting.
The summer content line-up is headlined by a series on second season premieres for some all-time favorite Netflix originals. First, teen-drama and widely-discussed show 13 Reasons Why debuts its second season in May. After that, Netflix subs will get the second installments of Sense8, Luke Cage, and GLOW, all of which had first seasons that were widely loved by audiences.
In other words, Netflix will continue to build on its early original content success. With a few years of original content now under its belt, Netflix will continue to launch second, third, fourth, and fifth installments of original content story-lines that were well-received. This multiple-season nature of Netflix’s original content gives the company a ton of firepower when it comes to increasing the platform’s value proposition.
Consequently, a persistently strong pipeline of original content should continue to provide a lift to subscriber growth. That subscriber growth will in turn lift NFLX stock.
Bottom Line on Netflix Stock
I maintain that Netflix stock is slightly overvalued here and now in the $330 range. But the underlying fundamentals are only strengthening, and given the current and forthcoming superb original content line-ups, I wouldn’t be surprised to see NFLX stock head materially higher during the summer.
I just think we get a little pull back before that big rally.
As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.