As you might recall, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) reported first-quarter sales in May that missed analyst expectations. Despite lukewarm revenues, investors pushed HD stock higher and is now trading about 15% higher than its April lows.

The home-improvement retailer reports its Q2 2018 earnings Tuesday before the market opens. Given the hot economy, anything less than a home run will result in HD stock revisiting the $170s.

So, what’s Home Depot got to do to prevent that from happening? Well, I see three numbers making all the difference in the world.

Same-Store Sales

Analysts were expecting 5.4% comps in the first quarter; it delivered same-store sales growth of 4.2%, 120 basis points less than expected on account of poor weather hurting its gardening business.

Early signs showed that the business it missed out on in Q1 moved into the early part of Q2.

“While spring was a reluctant bride, she has arrived,” Chief Financial Officer Carol B. Tomé said May 15 in HD’s Q1 2018 conference call. “Month to date, our May comparable sales are double-digit positive.”

Not only did Home Depot see a strong start to the second quarter, it also projected same-store sales growth for the entire 2018 of 5%, which if it’s on target, means nothing but gravy the rest of the year and that’s very good news for HD stock.

I don’t know what the analysts are estimating in terms of same-store sales growth but in Q2 2017, Home Depot’s comps increased by 6.3% including a 6.6% increase at its U.S. stores.

I would think anything below 6% would be considered a poor showing seriously affecting its share price. Anything above last year would keep the momentum it’s had the last few months on track.

I’m inclined to suggest that it will meet or exceed last year’s same-store sales growth.

HD Stock Earnings

The better part of the company’s first quarter report was its earnings, which grew 19.4% year-over-year to $2.4 billion. On a per-share basis, they grew by 24.6% to $2.08 a share, three cents better than analyst expectations.

If you’re going to have a weak quarter, I’ll take a hit to revenues before earnings every day of the week.

In the second quarter analysts expect the company to earn $2.84 a share, 26% ahead of last year’s $2.25 a share.

Anything above $2.80 a share should be good for HD stock over the next 2-3 months even if it misses the $2.84 analyst estimate.

Retail, in general, has had a very strong year so far in 2018 — the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 14% year to date through August 10 — so I don’t see the company delivering a stinker on the bottom line.

Improving Revenue KPIs

In Q1, HD had positive growth in both average ticket per transaction — 5.8% YOY growth to $66.02 — and sales per square foot growth — up 4.5% year over year to $412.03 — but because of the soft garden business, the number of customer transactions declined by 1.3% to 375.9 million.

In the second quarter, all three of these metrics have to be higher. With the strong start to Q2, I’m confident they will be.

Another thing you might want to look out for is the company’s online sales. In the first quarter, it grew them 20.2% to $1.9 billion or 7.6% of its overall sales.

Anything below 15% growth year-over-year could be interpreted by investors as a slowdown in online sales. Anything above that is a sign its online business continues to gain traction. I’d bet on the latter.

The Bottom Line on Home Depot Earnings

All things considered, I would be shocked if Home Depot doesn’t report a solid quarter Tuesday.

The economy’s going strong, home prices continue to rise putting a premium on home renovations and improvements.

If you own HD stock, I’d continue to hold it in 2019 and beyond. If you don’t, I’d seriously consider buying some before earnings.

As of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.