If you’re not sure what to make of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) here in the shadow of an 1100% gain from AMD stock over the course of the past three years (and a doubling just since early April), you’re not crazy. You’re also not alone. This has been a tricky ticker to handicap, with so much happening so fast.

And yet, once the smoke clears, AMD stock will have to sink or swim on its sustainable results.

To that end, if a newcomer to Advanced Micro Devices is weary of diving into a new trade simply because the water you’d be diving into isn’t entirely clear, here’s a quick primer that might put things in perspective.

The Good

On the off chance you’re reading this and haven’t yet put two and two together, Advanced Micro Devices is in the middle of a turnaround story. Actually, it’s at the tail end of a turnaround story, having spent the last several years working on new, highly-competitive products.

Chef among those products is the Ryzen CPU, the second generation of which was just unveiled this week. The so-called “Threadripper” boasts 32 cores and 64 threads, prompting the company to call it the world’s most powerful desktop processor.

It was a not-so-subtle poke at Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), without explicit saying Intel’s name. It also may not be true for very long; rival CPU makers are generally quick to counterpunch.

Whatever the case, the point is still well taken.

Perhaps more important, AMD’s got the numbers to support the notion that its turnaround has taken hold. Last quarter’s bottom line was the best in seven years, with the launch of new GPUs, CPUs and data center hardware all finally reaching a critical mass.

And, to the extent it helps, investors love the hype. Nothing draws a crowd of buyers like a rising stock, fanning the bullish flames.

The Bad

It’s interesting though. While retail investors love it, the analyst community isn’t budging.

Oh, AMD stock recently was upgraded by Goldman Sachs, with analyst Toshiya Hari noting:

“We find it increasingly harder to argue our prior bear thesis – even following the recent stock price move – given Intel’s struggles with 10nm process technology…The delay in Intel’s new products will allow AMD to gain share in not only client (i.e. desktop PC, notebook PC) CPUs, but also in the lucrative server CPU market.”

For every upgrade though, AMD stock seems to find a new doubter. Shortly after releasing its impressive Q2 report, BMO Capital Markets lowered its stance on Advanced Micro Devices to “Market Perform,” and simultaneously lowered its price target to $15.

In short, BMO feels last quarter was as good as it gets for the company, which admittedly doesn’t have much left in the way for an encore, especially if competitors continue to ramp up their games.

And they are.

Though Advanced Micro Devices had started to make some headway in the all-important server and data center market that’s historically been hogged by Intel, Intel is pushing back.

Earlier this month Intel announced that while it’s going to need until 2020 to start shipping the 10 nanometer processors everyone wants, it’s already delivering a combination of processors and memory chips that were co-developed to deliver blazing fast speed.

It might be just enough to protect its turf.

In the meantime, AMD is conspicuously not a major player on the artificial intelligence front despite graphic processors finding a home on that front. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominates that market, having custom-built GPUs and hardware for AI developers. It’s a business Advanced Micro Devices could have at least addressed. It’s well behind the curve now, however.

The Ugly

Perhaps most concerning for newcomers is the simple fact that a wave of unfettered bullishness has left AMD stock technically overbought and ripe for profit-taking.

That’s not inherently a problem. This chart has been overbought before, and continued to rally deeper into overbought territory. The lofty, nose-bleed price levels won’t necessarily translate into a pullback.

What is noteworthy, however, is that this is one of the few cases where a stock is not just above the consensus target, but well above it.

As of the most recent look, the analyst community still says AMD stock is only worth $18.28 per share despite ample opportunity to raise their targets following last quarter’s earnings report. More often than not, a consensus target is above the stock’s price.

Whatever the market’s seeing, the pros aren’t seeing it. It’s possible the pros are wrong, but that’s not often the case.

The Bottom Line for AMD Stock

It’s not a trade for the faint of heart, whether you’re mulling a short or a long trade. There’s a lot to digest here, and a lot of changes underway, and right or wrong sentiment and headlines have hijacked the stock.

The game here is mostly figuring out how other traders will feel about AMD stock a few days to a few weeks down the road. The plausible fundamentals aren’t actually being taken all that seriously.

Whatever the case, the right way to play Advanced Micro Devices is by playing the game. Buy the dips, sell the rips, and don’t turn your back on it for too long. Also bear in mind that the headlines are more likely to reflect the stock’s current direction than the other way around.

There’s no telling how long AMD stock will be trapped within this psychological tug-of-war. It’s likely, though, it could be a long while.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.