Micron Technology (MU) Stock Is Better Than You Think It Is

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micron - Micron Technology (MU) Stock Is Better Than You Think It Is

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Cloud computing, mobile apps, your toaster — it doesn’t matter. All of the technology sector runs on semiconductors. However, there is a big difference between the chips needed for self-driving cars and the one in your garage door opener. On one hand, specialized chips are obviously more complex. And as such, they come with higher margins. On the other, they don’t call boring analog chips commodity products for nothing: Volume is the name of the game.

Unfortunately, for semiconductor producer Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), the market doesn’t necessarily place too high of a valuation on boring analog chip makers. MU stock has long traded at discounts to its peers and even analysts price targets.

But those discounts may not last long.

That’s because Micron is quietly becoming much more than just a commodity-focused semiconductor firm. It’s becoming one with real growth behind it. For investors, it could represent one of the best risk-to-reward ratios in all of tech.

Micron Better Than DRAM

At its core, dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) is a semiconductor that stores a bit of data within an integrated circuit. It’s really the building blocks for most modern devices and products. Pretty much everything on the planet has one of these chips in it. Truth be told, there’s nothing particularly special about them.

For Micron, that’s been both a blessing and a curse.

Over its history, MU has specialized in these chips. It’s now one of the world’s largest producers of DRAM and other non-volatile memory products. Sales of DRAM chips roughly account for about 70% of Micron’s total revenues, while NAND Flash chips — which are favored by mobile device manufacturers — roughly contribute the rest. And there’s nothing wrong with this focus or business model. Micron has been profitable over the last few years — especially since server and mobile device demand has taken off.

The problem is, as a commodity chip, DRAM is subjected to the ebbs and flows of the overall consumer and tech markets. Believe it or not, DRAM prices are actually set just like a barrel of oil or corn. There’s a spot market for these chips. That means supply and demand directly impact prices. MU can’t really set what it charges for its products. Moreover, DRAM has plenty of manufacturers and its more of the volume game rather than a margin-focused one.

While it’s one of the largest producers, Micron is still subject to wide swings in profitability and cash flows due to the global economy. Because of this, MU stock has long traded at a big discount to other specialized chipmakers that are focused on higher margined products. That includes today. MU shares can be had for a P/E of just 5.

Discount at Micron May Not Last

But that discount may not last for very long. That’s because Micron is undergoing a big transformation into moving past the commodity DRAM market and into some more lucrative chipsets. At the same time, it continues to improve its memory chips to make them less commodities and more irreplaceable to manufacturers.

This includes two major-sized bets on chipsets for autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence. In order to make cars smart and artificial intelligence work, it takes some pretty specialized chips. You need to process tons of data quickly in order to have the car or machine decide instantly what to do. With its already commanding lead in memory chips, MU has moved heavily into boosting its capacity and technology in these areas.

Micron recently announced a $3 billion expansion at a plant in Virginia over the next few years to expand upon its embedded solutions segment. Right now, this segment accounts for roughly 10% of its total revenues. However, MU estimates that by 2021, the automotive memory market will grow by almost 140%, while the internet of things (IoT) will jump by 70%. The expansion gives MU a lead on the growth of these specialty applications and will help reduce its dependency on regular boring DRAM.

At the same time, Micron is making its DRAM chips less commodity-like in the first place. This includes a big partnership with rival Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) to produce a new 3D XPoint technology. The chipset is similar to if you took DRAM, NAND and stacked them together a few times. Not only do these chips use less power than conventional chips, but they are able to store and analyze data very quickly. This creates plenty of new application potential for end-users.  MU should start shipping these chips in the first half of 2019 and could set the standard going forward.

Micron Isn’t a Commodity Play Anymore

The overall point is that Micron is treated like a commodity player in the chip market, but it really isn’t. The firm is quickly moving away from boring DRAM and into more specialized memory chips. And revenues and margins at these other ventures should quickly translate into a higher multiple for the stock as investors get wind of exactly what is happening. Just take a look at semiconductor rival AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) as a prime example of what happens when a firm switches its style and it works.

The difference is, MU is already a cash flow machine. Analysts estimate that Micron with reap roughly $10 billion in free cash flows this year alone.

With a single-digit price-to-earnings ratio, current high revenues and plenty of potential to boost profits further, Micron could be one of the best bargains in all of tech. Once investors realize that it’s no longer attached to DRAM spot rates, MU should soar.

As of this writing, Aaron Levitt did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Aaron Levitt is an investment journalist living in Ohio. With nearly two decades of experience, his work appears in several high-profile publications in both print and on the web. Also likes a good Reuben sandwich. Follow his picks and pans on Twitter at @AaronLevitt.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/09/micron-technology-mu-stock-better-than-think/.

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