Are you a long-time Snap (NYSE:SNAP) shareholder? If so, it seems like the least CEO Evan Spiegel could do would be send you a free pair of Spectacles as a thank you for hanging in there after most sane investors have left the building.
I’m joking about the Spectacles offer, of course, although at $200 a pop, it would be a nice gesture for long-suffering shareholders.
Snap went public on March 2, 2017, at $17 a share. Less than two years later, it’s trading below $10 and is at all-time lows. That has got to hurt if you’re one of the CEOs friends or family and have been holding on not wanting to offend him.
For the rest of you, here are the pros and cons of owning its stock at this point.
SNAP Stock a Value Buy
If you’re a glass half full kind of person, the fact that you can buy SNAP stock for 43% less than its IPO price, is a serious deal.
The company announced Q2 2018 earnings that weren’t terrible, with revenues up 44% year over year to $262.3 million, $11 million better than the consensus estimate while its non-GAAP loss was $176.6 million (14 cents a share), $18.9 million less than a year earlier, three cents better than analyst expectations.
In addition, the quarter saw its average revenue per user (ARPU) increase by 16% to $1.40 on a sequential basis. On a year over year basis, ARPU grew by 34%, the same year over year increase as in the first quarter, but a significant improvement on a sequential basis.
At the end of the day, Snap is selling more ads than it ever has, which means even if its daily active users flatlines at $188 million, investors can expect revenue to keep growing at 30% or more a quarter.
Losing less and selling more, it’s a relative deal.
SNAP Stock Is a Value Bust
I must admit I’ve never been a fan of Snapchat.
“Sure, they might have read the section of the Snap Inc. prospectus that warned ‘it may never achieve or maintain profitability’ and reflected on this warning, but I highly doubt it,” I wrote in April 2017. “The reality is that anyone who bought SNAP stock, young or old, broke one of the cardinal rules of investing: Buy profitable businesses at reasonable prices.”
I mention this particular quote because a value bust to me is buying stock in a company that’s currently losing money and may never turn profitable.
Now, if you’re a speculator, that’s another story altogether, because the ad growth and ARPU numbers hold some promise, but only if they keep moving higher and Facebook Stories doesn’t crush it before it can get to breakeven.
Those are two big ifs.
The Verdict on SNAP Stock
First of all (and this will probably come back to haunt me, but) I wish Snap would forget about those ridiculous Spectacles. While the second generation might look a lot better, they’re nothing but a distraction from its real business of selling advertising.
As for the stock itself, I would recommend it, but only for the most aggressive investors who can afford to lose all of their investment. SNAP stock is not something you put in your retirement accounts, and it’s definitely not money you should count on in the future.
Below $10, I can see some investors rolling the dice. However, I wouldn’t be one of them.
As of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.