It has been a wild ride for cosmetics retailer Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), and now it looks that ride will take ULTA stock higher into the end of the year.

From the start of decade into 2017, Ulta thrived thanks to increased adoption of photocentric social media apps catalyzing secular tailwinds in the whole cosmetics industry. During that stretch, Ulta was a company characterized by robust comparable sales growth, huge unit expansion, significant margin improvements, and really, really big earnings growth. That is why ULTA stock went from $20 at the start of the decade, to over $300 by mid-2017.

Then, Ulta hit some speed bumps. Namely, secular tailwinds in the cosmetics industry started to cool, department stores started to discount cosmetics products and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) made a big push into the space. The net result was lower comparable sales growth, some margin compression and slower-than-usual profit growth. That is why ULTA stock dropped from over $300 in mid-2017, to under $200 earlier this year.

But, that sell-off was way overdone.

The company has continued to report strong comparable sales growth alongside big unit growth. Gross margins are stabilizing. Profit growth is still immense. As a result, ULTA stock rebounded to $250 by mid-2018.

Now, though, ULTA stock is skyrocketing higher thanks to one person: celebrity influencer Kylie Jenner, who recently announced that her ultra-popular cosmetics line would be available exclusively in Ulta stores this holiday season.

This most recent run in ULTA stock isn’t over. Fundamentals, technicals and sentiment all point towards ULTA stock heading towards $300 by the end of the year. Thus, buyers here will likely be rewarded over the next few months.

Fundamentals Support ULTA Stock at $300

When it comes to the fundamentals, ULTA stock is supported by a year-end price target of roughly $300.

There is no doubt that growth at Ulta is slowing. Comparable sales were up 16% two years ago, 11% last year, 8% two quarters ago, and 7% last quarter. Net sales growth has followed a similar deceleration trajectory. The same is largely true for e-commerce sales growth.

Under the hood, the red-hot cosmetics industry is simply cooling off. Comparable sales growth in excess of 10% wasn’t be sustainable in a long-term window. We got a few years of that big growth. Now, we are normalizing back to a more sustainable state of mid-single-digit growth.

This market should continue to grow at a 5%-or-greater rate. We are still fully immersed in the Selfie Generation, an era defined by photo and videocentric sharing apps that augment the desire for individuals to look good. When individuals want to look good, they work out, eat healthy and wear makeup. Thus, the cosmetics industry is one of three pillars of one of today’s most prevalent millennial trends.

From this perspective, Ulta should be able to grow comparable sales at a 5%-or-greater rate over the next several years. Coupled with big unit growth, that should lead to 10-15% revenue growth. Gross margins are largely stable, and should remain so. The operating expense should drop back this year after new investments fade. Overall, I think it’s likely that Ulta does about $20 in earnings per share in five years.

A growth-average 20 forward multiple on that implies a four-year forward price target of $400. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a year-end price target of $300. From this perspective, the current rally in ULTA stock is fundamentally supported to $300.

Kylie Jenner Provides a Huge Catalyst

Fundamentals alone won’t push ULTA stock higher. A stock like this, which has been through wild swings, needs a catalyst.

That catalyst has been, is, and will continue to be Jenner. Jenner is part of the widely followed Kardashian clan and is arguably the most famous and widely followed in the group. At only twenty-one years old, Jenner has 114 million Instagram followers (the seventh most on Instagram) and owns an $800 million cosmetics empire, which is behind arguably the most popular makeup products in the world right now.

All those makeup products are coming exclusively to Ulta this holiday season. That is a big deal. Jenner is a very influential force in the beauty industry. Her beauty products have a bunch of pent-up demand, since they are highly sought after, but have been so hard to find without mainstream distribution. Ulta is finally providing that mainstream distribution and all that pent-up demand will let loose this holiday season.

The net result? A huge inflow of traffic to Ulta stores and Ulta’s website. Couple this big announcement with the fact that the consumer is as strong and as confident as ever right now, and it becomes crystal clear that Ulta could have a really big holiday season.

This means ULTA stock will likely finish the year with a bang.

Bottom Line on ULTA Stock

Slowing growth will get cured by what promises to be a huge holiday season thanks to unprecedented consumer strength and Jenner.

Because of this, ULTA stock should finish the year strong, and will likely reclaim the $300 level.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long ULTA and AMZN.