Why Investors Shouldn’t Rush to Buy the Dip in Square Stock

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Square stock - Why Investors Shouldn’t Rush to Buy the Dip in Square Stock

Source: Via Square

The recent market selloff has been especially unkind to digital payments processor Square (NYSE:SQ).

Square stock was once one of Wall Street’s highest flyers. In mid-2016, this stock was under $10. At the start of October, the stock soared above $100. But, as high-flying tech stocks have fallen out of favor, Square stock has been hit especially hard. Over the past five trading days, it has fallen nearly 30%.

As of this writing, SQ stock trades hands around $70 — down from the highs, but still up seven-fold from just over two years ago.

The long-term bull thesis on Square stock at these levels is quite convincing. This is a company that is the leader in the secular growth digital payments market, and that market promises to be huge over the next five to ten years. As such, assuming Square maintains its leadership position in digital payments, Square stock should be worth a lot more in five years than what its worth today.

But near-term risks are high: Tech stocks are a mess right now with rates rising. Eventually, rates will cool off, and tech stocks will stabilize. But, until that happens, Square stock won’t rebound. This is especially true considering Square’s CFO just stepped down, and that simply injects more uncertainty into the SQ narrative. Consequently, the near-term outlook for SQ stock is uncertain.

But, the long-term outlook is quite promising. As such, while investors shouldn’t rush to buy the dip just yet, they should be ready to buy the dip once this stock starts to stabilize.

Square Stock Could Be Huge

Square stock soared from under $10 to over $100 in two years because of strong long-term fundamental growth drivers. Those growth drivers remain robust today, and as such, this stock will ultimately rebound from this sell-off.

The biggest knock against Square stock is valuation. At 150X forward earnings, this is not a cheap stock. But, knocks against valuation miss the big picture. This is a company that is attacking a multi-trillion dollar market, and will inevitably grow into its big valuation, much like all the FANG stocks did, particularly Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

At its core, Square is a digital and non-cash payments enabler. As an enabler of such payments, Square is a pure play on the trend that cash is becoming a thing of the past. Today, more commerce transactions are being completed with a credit card, debit card, digital payment account or some other form of non-cash payment, and this trend is only increasing.

Square is the leader in enabling these types of payments. Yet, Square presently captures just 0.2% of the $40 trillion and growing global consumer spend market. As such, so long as the digital payment transition persists and Square maintains leadership positioning, this company will continue to grow by leaps and bounds as that market share goes from 0.2% to 1% and potentially higher.

This will likely happen. In the digital payments world, there are benefits to having retailers of all shapes and sizes use the same digital payment processor. Consistency across retailers creates a smoother and more streamlined checkout experience for consumers, as well as a smoother and more streamlined learning curve for retail employees switching between retailers. Also, Square has created an ecosystem surrounding its digital payment processors, and this ecosystem includes things like Square Capital and Square Cash.

Overall, it is likely that the digital payment transition continues to accelerate while Square maintains its leadership position. As such, this company, and this stock, have enormous growth potential over the next several years.

Near-Term Risks Are High

Despite the bullish long-term growth backdrop, investors shouldn’t be in any hurry to buy Square stock now. After all, the stock is a multi-year growth stock, so there isn’t any rush to buy within the next few weeks.

Indeed, over the next few weeks, Square stock may continue to struggle thanks to bad optics. In addition to broad weakness across the entire tech sector, Square stock is feeling the fallout from a CFO departure. Considering CEO Jack Dorsey splits time between Square and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), the Square CFO departure is a bigger deal than it would be for other companies. As investors try to digest this news against a weak tech backdrop, the stock reaction will likely not be pretty.

Thus, in the near-term, Square stock will likely remain weak.

Bottom Line on SQ Stock

Square stock is one of my favorite long-term growth investments. I think this stock is rapidly approaching fair value based on my long-term growth assumptions, and I further think that upside from current levels is compelling in a long-term window.

But, because the bull thesis is based on multi-year upside, there is no need to rush in and buy now, while the optics are bad and the tech sector is a mess. Instead, investors should wait for confirmation of price stabilization, and then buy the dip and hold for the long run.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long SQ and AMZN.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/why-investors-shouldnt-rush-to-buy-the-dip-in-square-stock/.

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