Shares of social media giant Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) soared after the company reported fourth-quarter numbers which beat on top- and bottom-line expectations, and largely dispelled concerns regarding the health of the company’s digital advertising business. Facebook stock popped more than 10% after the Q4 report to $170, its highest level since early September 2018.

Facebook stock is now up about 40% in just over a month. That’s a big enough rally to believe that a near-term pullback is in the cards. That may be true. Ultimately, though, this rally has legs.

Facebook’s fourth-quarter numbers were really good, and in finance, numbers speak louder than words. Amid all the bad press the company has received over the past several years, users and advertisers still aren’t leaving the platform, revenue growth isn’t slowing, and profits aren’t getting wiped out. If those things didn’t happen in 2018 — the worst year for Facebook ever — they won’t happen in 2019, 2020 or 2021.

Instead, over the next several years, the bad press headwinds will move into the rear-view mirror. User growth will remain steady. Advertisers will keep joining the platform and upping ad budgets. Revenue growth will remain north of 20%. Expense growth will moderate, and margins will expand.

Profits will rise.

In other words, FB is getting back to business as usual. Business, as usual, will ultimately result in Facebook stock re-taking the $200 level in 2019. As such, while the stock is due for a near-term pullback, that pullback is simply an opportunity to buy more. There’s plenty more upside ahead over the next 12 months.

The Numbers Speak For Themselves

The most iconic line from Facebook’s fourth-quarter conference call came when CFO David Wehner, in response to a question regarding bad press, said that he’d “probably just let the numbers stand for themselves.”

He’s right. Facebook’s fourth-quarter numbers do stand for themselves.

Users aren’t leaving the platform. Daily and monthly active user growth were both 9% in Q4, consistent with prior growth rates, while quarter-over-quarter user growth was 2%, the strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2018. Meanwhile, U.S. daily actives grew sequentially for the first time in a year, while Europe daily actives rose by 4 million sequentially after two consecutive quarters of declines. Asia-Pacific user growth remained robust. Unique users across the Facebook ecosystem rose 4% sequentially from 2.6 billion to 2.7 billion

Advertisers aren’t leaving the platform, either. There are now 7 million active advertisers in the Facebook ecosystem and 2 million on Stories. The number of ad impressions rose 34% year-over-year, while ad prices remained largely stable.

New products are being adopted in bulk. Instagram Stories now has 500 million daily active users. Meanwhile, 400 million people use Facebook Watch every month, and those users, on average, spend 20 minutes a day on Facebook Watch.

Revenue growth remains robust. Revenues rose 30% year-over-year in Q4, led by 36% mobile ad revenue growth. Pretty much every geography grew revenues by over 30%, excluding currency headwinds.

Margins are still huge. Despite 60%-plus growth in opex, Facebook was able to maintain operating margins of 46% in the quarter. That’s still down year-over-year, but it’s up sequentially from 42% in Q3.

Overall, the numbers here are very good. Numbers speak louder than words. They actually tell you what is really going on at a company. These numbers are telling the market that Facebook’s business is pretty much as healthy as ever, and that creates a pathway for Facebook stock to keep rallying.

The Narrative Is Changing for Facebook Stock

Beyond the numbers, the words are changing, too.

Specifically, fiscal 2018 was all about data privacy and security headwinds. FB was the center of bad press everywhere. That forced the company to double down on data privacy and security, which came at the expense of profitability and new growth initiatives. Growth rates fell. Investors ditched the stock.

That could all change in 2019.

Facebook has already done all the hard work. Headcount related to safety and security has tripled over the past several years from 10,000 to 30,000. Expenses ballooned in 2018. Data privacy and security across the whole ecosystem is now far better than it was before.

Thus, in 2019, the bad press should fade, and management should be able to focus on new growth initiatives. Such growth initiatives include rolling out payments in WhatsApp, building out Instagram’s commerce capabilities, integrating businesses more seamlessly with WhatsApp and Messenger and doubling down on expanding Watch’s content and reach.

These initiatives will reinvigorate the company’s growth trajectory in 2019, and lift investor sentiment. As such, the narrative will change from defensive/deceleration to offensive/acceleration. That narrative shift will put FB stock back on a winning path.

$200 Is Doable In 2019

The math behind Facebook stock at $200 by the end of 2019 isn’t all that difficult.

The implied revenue growth rate for 2019 is 20-25%. That’s down from 37% in 2018. But, management has recently developed a habit for under promising and over delivering. As such, that implied 20-25% guide will ultimately prove light. Plus, over the next several years, revenue growth should stabilize around 20-25% as the company more comprehensively monetizes WhatsApp and Messenger, and builds out things like commerce functionality across the ecosystem.

As such, revenues should shake out around $135 billion by fiscal 2024.

The implied expense growth rate for 2019 is 45%. That’s huge. It also implies margin compression in 2019. But, this big growth won’t last forever. Management believes revenue and expense growth should start re-aligning by 2020. When that happens, margins will start expanding again.

As such, 40% operating margins seem doable by fiscal 2024.

That combination of $135 billion in revenue and 40% operating margins makes $15 in earnings-per-share seem very achievable by fiscal 2024. Based on a growth average 20 forward multiple, that equates to a fiscal 2023 price target for Facebook stock of $300. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a fiscal 2019 price target of just over $200.

Bottom Line on FB Stock

Numbers speak louder than words, and the numbers underlying Facebook stock have been, still are, and will remain very good. The valuation is still depressed, so 2019 will be a year when strong numbers converge on a weak valuation, and that convergence will ultimately result in Facebook stock heading back to $200.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB.