Tesla Stock Doomsayers Are Wrong About the Q4 Delivery Update

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TSLA - Tesla Stock Doomsayers Are Wrong About the Q4 Delivery Update

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On the first day of trading in 2019, shares of electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropped sharply after the company reported fourth-quarter delivery numbers that came up just shy of expectations. Specifically, the company missed total delivery estimates by just over a percent. They also missed Model 3 delivery estimates by just under 3%. Tesla stock dropped 10% in response.

A 10% drop in TSLA stock as a result of a 1-3% miss on fourth-quarter deliveries seems harsh. But, the broad concern here is that once-robust Model 3 demand is stalling. In conjunction with the delivery report, Tesla announced that it was reducing the prices of vehicles in the U.S. by $2,000, while Electrek reported that the company had excess Model 3 inventory of 3,000 vehicles at the end of 2018. Price reductions amid excess inventory and against the backdrop of a delivery miss painted a bearish picture of waning Model 3 demand in the U.S.

These fears, while legitimate in the near term, are overstated in the big picture.

In that big picture, Tesla continues to gain share in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market thanks to new vehicles and lower price variants. In 2019 and through the next several years, there will be more new vehicles and more lower price variants. Thus, this company remains in the early stages of a multi-year growth narrative that promises to spark huge revenue and profit growth. As that happens, TSLA stock will ultimately head higher.

Nothing about the slight fourth-quarter delivery report changed anything about that long-term growth narrative. Sentiment will be pressured in the near term by the miss. That’s always the case with TSLA stock. But, dips to $300 should be seen as promising entry points for long-term investors.

Model 3 Demand Is Waning, But Only Temporarily

The big concern with the fourth-quarter delivery report was the miss on Model 3 deliveries. That miss came in conjunction with reports of excess Model 3 inventory in the U.S. and a $2,000 price cut, overall painting a bearish picture of waning Model 3 demand.

This is certainly happening. Model 3 demand in the U.S. is waning. But, this is simply a temporary pause. In the big picture, it’s nothing to be concerned about. Nor is it a reason for TSLA stock to drop 10%.

Under the hood, consumers are simply waiting for the lower price variant of the Model 3 to come out in 2019. Thus, demand in the U.S. is stalling out right now. But, once that lower price variant rolls out in 2019, demand will re-accelerate higher. After all, there is no lack of “new demand” for Tesla vehicles. Management said that more than 75% of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers.

Thus, this relative pause in Model 3 U.S. demand is a temporary phenomena. Once the lower price variant rolls out, as CEO Elon Musk has promised, then demand will re-accelerate, and TSLA stock will bounce back.

Also, a temporary stall in U.S. demand should be offset in early 2019 by accelerated growth overseas, as the Model 3 begins to roll out production in Europe and Asia.

Overall, the overarching concern that Model 3 demand in the U.S. is waning, while legitimate, is overstated. This is simply a temporary growing pain. Demand will ultimately re-accelerate in early to mid 2019, and TSLA stock will bounce back.

Long-Term Picture Remains Promising

Regardless of the Q4 delivery miss, the long-term fundamentals underlying TSLA remain highly attractive. In the big picture, Tesla is still a company that is gaining share in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market.

In 2017, the company delivered just over 100,000 vehicles in a global EV market that measured 1.3 million vehicles. That means Tesla controlled about an 8% share of the EV market last year.

This year, Tesla delivered almost 250,000 vehicles in a global EV market that had 2.1 million deliveries. That implies 12% market share for Tesla in 2018.

Thus, from 2017 to 2018, the EV market grew by more than 60%, and Tesla expanded its share of that market by 4 points. So long as this trend continues, and it should, given Tesla’s plans to launch new vehicles and create lower price variants, TSLA stock will ultimately head higher due to robust revenue and profit growth.

Bottom Line on TSLA Stock

The fourth-quarter delivery report showed signs of slowing Model 3 demand in the U.S. But, this slowdown is temporary. It will ultimately be replaced by resurgent demand in 2019 as lower price variants are introduced to the market.

In the big picture, the long-term growth fundamentals of a company gaining share in the rapidly growing EV market remain intact. So long as those fundamentals remain intact, the long-term bull thesis on TSLA remains highly attractive.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TSLA. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/01/tesla-stock-doomsayers-are-wrong-about-the-q4-delivery-update/.

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