It seems so long ago that I wrote Forget $5,000. Bitcoin Will Hit $10,000 on This Date.
A little more than three years ago, me, a guy with very little understanding of the whole cryptocurrency scene, had the audacity to suggest it could go to $10,000.
“My first reaction to recent predictions of future bitcoin price of $10,000: Why not? People thought Dow 20,000 was crazy and here we are at 22,830. Stuff happens, good and bad, and bitcoin is no different despite the fact most of us are still trying to understand what the heck it is,” I wrote on Oct. 12, 2017.
Now, let’s be clear, I’m not suggesting in any way that I was predicting bitcoin (CCC:BTC) would hit $10,000 by Oct. 11, 2018. I was merely agreeing with those that were predicting a five-digit bitcoin price.
It ultimately hit $10,00o in November 2017, went to slightly less than $20,000 by the end of the year, retreated to $3,100 a year later, and is now back knocking on $20,000’s door.
So, it seems only natural to be talking about a six-digit bitcoin price.
Bitcoin will hit $100,000 on [blank]. Let’s discuss.
Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 in 2021
If you google “$100,000 bitcoin,” you get a lot of results.
Reuters mentions several analysts who think it could go to six digits in 2021. One, hedge fund Off the Chain Capital, thinks it could go as high as $288,000 in the next year. That would be a nice payday.
“I have seen bitcoin go up 10X, 20X, 30X in a year. So going up 5X is not a big deal,” said Off the Chain Capital’s chief investment officer, Brian Estes.
Citi technical analyst Tom Fitzpatrick believes it could hit $318,000 by the end of next year.
Or, as trader Kevin Muir told Reuters, it could go to zero.
“Any hedge fund model on bitcoin is rubbish. You can’t model a mania,” Muir said. “Is it plausible? For sure. It’s a mania. But does anyone actually have a clue? Not a chance.”
I couldn’t agree more. The only time I really get into trouble with stocks is when I provide absolute numbers and a certain date. I’m almost always wrong on those occasions. Bitcoin included.
Too Volatile to Stay at $100,000
It’s one thing to say bitcoin is going to hit $10,000 by so-and-so date. It’s another to say it’s going to stay above $10,000 on a certain date. That takes real conviction.
As my example showed earlier, bitcoin hit $10,000 within a month of my article – it was trading around $5,800 at the time – but proceeded to lose 85% of its value after hitting an all-time high just below $20,000.
The real money is made by the woman or man who is right about the date bitcoin never again falls below a certain price. That soothsayer-like advice is worth millions. But as the quote above suggests, no one really has a clue.
When it comes to the naysayers, it appears they are the minority regarding bitcoin’s future price. InvestorPlace’s David Moadel recently discussed why billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio believes bitcoin could be outlawed.
While Moadel points out that Dalio is far from being a cryptocurrency expert, he is worth more than $15 billion, all of it made from being right a lot more than he’s wrong. This tells me his input is, at the very least, worth mulling over.
The Bottom Line
On Nov. 17, Dalio tweeted about the subject making several points. Of the five he made, his last one holds the most water, in my opinion.
“Also, unlike gold which is the third highest reserve asset that central banks own, I can’t imagine central banks, big Institutional investors, businesses or multinational companies using it. If I’m wrong about these things I would love to be corrected,” Dalio tweeted.
A lot of people were quick to judge Dalio’s comments.
Ultimately, he very well could be wrong about bitcoin. However, if he does change his mind, I can assure you of one thing, you’ll know it by the size of his bitcoin holdings.
Warren Buffett got pummeled by his IBM (NYSE:IBM) investment, yet he’s now one of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shareholders. Billionaires don’t become rich by being stubborn.
If some tangible evidence shows up in the next 12 to 24 months that makes a coherent argument for the universal uptake of bitcoin, investors can be certain Dalio will find a way to profit.
In the meantime, I think his words carry weight as a governor against unbridled enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency’s ascent.
Is it too soon to suggest bitcoin is headed to $50,000 or $100,000? I think it is.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
