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FuboTV Stock Should Be Your Longshot Bet, but Don’t Go All In

FuboTV (NYSE:FUBO) reports Q1 2021 results tomorrow. FUBO stock has been under pressure since early February. Any bad news will send it into the low teens.

Flat-screen TV set displaying logo of FuboTV, an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports
Source: monticello / Shutterstock.com

While I can’t tell you what Fubo’s top and bottom lines will look like in the first quarter, I can tell you analysts expect revenue of $103.8 million and a loss of 46 cents.

In fact, the pros don’t see profits until at least 2023 or later. 

So, if you’re the type of investor who only invests in profitable companies, FUBO stock is definitely not for you. However, if you were an early buyer of Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock, you might take a closer look to see if Fubo has the right stuff.

I’m not saying it does, but before you write it off, at least check out this important operating metric. It tells you all you need to know.

ROKU Stock and Hours Streamed Per Account

In January 2020, I argued that ROKU stock was a screaming buy under $100. At the time, it was trading at $130. Several months earlier, trading at $84, I said it would hit $200 by May 2024. 

Boy, was I being conservative. It hit $200 by October 2020 and reached an all-time high of $486.72 by February 2021. Since then, it’s struggled to stay above $300. In a similar vein as my January 2020 call, Roku’s a screaming buy under $300.

But I’m getting off course.

I’ve liked Roku in the past because it consistently increases its average hours streamed per account each quarter. On May 6, Roku reported its Q1 2021 results. It had 18.3 billion streaming hours, 49% higher than a year earlier and 7.6% higher than in Q4 2020. That’s good to see. 

In Q1 2021, it ended the quarter with 53.6 million active accounts, up 35% from a year earlier and 4.7% from Q4 2020. Also, good.

So, in Q1 2021, the average hours streamed per account was 341.42. In Q4 2020, it was 332.03, a 2.8% increase. In Q1 2020, it was 309.05, translating into a year-over-year increase of 10.5%.

ROKU stock jumped 13% on the news. 

FUBO Stock and Hours Streamed Per Account

Right there on FuboTV’s investor relations home page are the following figures: 548,000 paid subscribers in 2020, 545 million streamed hours in 2020, and 206 monthly hours per user in December 2020. All of that resulted in $269 million in 2020 revenue.  

Roku makes money from selling streaming players (“player revenue”) and generating revenue from digital ads, content distribution, revenue shares, premium subscriptions, and others (“platform revenue”). In Q1 2021, the split was 81% platform revenue and 19% player revenue.

FuboTV makes money from paid subscriptions and advertising.  However, in its business model, most of the revenue in 2020 was from subscriptions, which accounted for 89%, while advertising made up the remaining 11%. 

In 2020, the total hours watched by FuboTV users was 544.9 million. At the end of fiscal 2020 (Dec. 31, 2020), it had 547,880 paid subscribers, which means the average paid subscriber watched 994.56 hours. In 2019, the average paid subscriber watched 917.56 hours. That’s a year-over-year increase of 8.4%.

In 2020, Roku streamed 58.7 billion hours, 55.3% higher than a year earlier. At the end of 2020, it had 51.2 million active accounts. That’s an average of 1,146.48 hours streamed per active account. In 2019, the average was 1,024.39 [based on 37.8 billion hours streamed divided by 36.9 million active accounts]. The YOY growth in hours streamed per active account was 11.9%, 350 basis points higher than FuboTV.

The Bottom Line

When FuboTV reports its Q1 2021 results, I would look to see that it’s continuing to grow its hours watched, the number of paid subscribers, and of course, hours watched per paid subscriber. If all three of those are positive, I don’t see why a speculative investor wouldn’t remain very interested in FUBO stock.

In December 2018, I said that “[a]s long as the company [ROKU] kept growing its active accounts and viewing hours of those active accounts, advertising revenue would continue to grow.”

That’s precisely what’s happened. The same thing, assuming it executes properly, ought to happen to FuboTV’s advertising revenues.

The speculative investor ought to be interested in FUBO stock. The smart investor, however, will stick to Roku.  

On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. 

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia. At the time of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2021/05/fubo-stock-longshot-bet-dont-go-all-in/.

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