Benzinga’s Power Hour YouTube show had Wall Street veteran and Dogecoin (CCC:DOGE-USD) supporter Jenny Ta as a guest on May 21 to discuss the future price of the meme-based cryptocurrency.
Ta argued that she could see Dogecoin reaching a $1 trillion market capitalization someday, which she says would put each coin’s value between $7 and $8. As of June 2, it’s trading at around 40 cents.
If Ta’s correct and DOGE reaches $8, that’s 1,900% appreciation. Assuming she’s right, how many years are we talking to get there? One, three, 10?
Let’s consider this question.
Dogecoin Hits $1 Trillion
When I was asked to write something about Dogecoin by InvestorPlace’s editorial staff, I knew the subject of my commentary had to be something that would honestly reflect the way I look at investments without trying to sound like an expert on the subject, which I am definitely not.
As I said initially, let’s assume Ta’s correct, and at some point in the future, Dogecoin’s market cap hits $1 trillion. How long will it take to get from $37 billion today to $1 plus 12 zeroes tomorrow?
Let’s look at Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD) for some guidance. Ta called BTC the “godfather of cryptocurrencies” on her Benzinga appearance.
Bitcoin first hit $1 trillion on Feb. 19, 2021. That’s 12 years after it was launched on Jan. 3, 2009. If Dogecoin reaches $1 trillion at the same pace — DOGE launched in December 2013 — we’re talking about hitting the mark around Christmas 2025. To do that, it’s got to grow by 89% compounded annually over the next 55 months.
In mid-March 2020, BTC was trading around $6,200. When it hit $1 trillion for the first time in February, it traded at $56,399.99. That’s an increase of 810% in 11 months.
If Dogecoin were to increase by 810% over the next year, its market cap would hit $495 billion next May. If Dogecoin increased by 405% (half Bitcoin’s 11-month run) for two consecutive years, it would hit $1.4 trillion. I’m not a mathematician, but the odds of generating an annual return of 405% for two consecutive years seems pretty slim.
So, I’ve lowered the bar for Dogecoin to 100%. It would take five consecutive years doubling in price to get to $1.74 trillion. While that seems much more doable, it’s still a bit of a stretch.
What if a recession hits and people need money? That will stop DOGE in its tracks.
Who Is Jenny Ta?
When I saw and listened to the short clip with Ta talking about Dogecoin’s potential to reach $1 trillion, I knew this would be a big part of my article.
Why? Because I didn’t know Jenny Ta from Adam. So, I Googled her.
According to a 2015 CNN Business profile, Ta founded Vanguard Investments in 1998 when she was only 27. With 30 brokers, Ta became a millionaire in less than a year. She launched a second full-service brokerage firm, Titan Securities, in 2005. She apparently sold the company within the first year of operation but stayed on as a vice president until the end of 2009.
While the CNN Business article states Ta founded Titan Securities in 2005, the Broker Check section of FINRA’s (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) website states that the firm has been in existence since February 2004. Ta’s work history at Titan Securities is listed as Aug. 4, 2004, through Dec. 31, 2009. It’s possible the February date was when Titan was first incorporated.
FINRA — the securities industry not-for-profit organization that oversees licensing and regulation of broker-dealers — sanctioned Ta in December 2010, fining her $10,000 and suspended her from associating with any FINRA member for one year through Dec. 5, 2011.
The most disturbing part of the FINRA decision has to do with Ta’s promotion of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).
“From at least April 2009 through Dec. 31, 2009, Ta maintained a Twitter account with more than 1,400 followers, and she posted at least 372 tweets,” ThinkAdvisor’s Joyce Hanson wrote in 2011. 32 of those tweets related to AMD stock.
FINRA found that Ta and her family members owned more than 100,000 shares of AMD but failed to disclose this information in her positive tweets about the company.
She was about four years too early on the AMD train. I wonder if she still holds them? If so, she’d be sitting on a sizable profit.
Profits aside, is this someone that you want to be listening to for cryptocurrency advice? I sure wouldn’t.
She sounds like a self-promoter and not much more.
The Bottom Line on Dogecoin
I’ve learned over the years that it’s a mug’s game to make price predictions. Yet, I still make them.
Because investors want the certainty that comes from someone confidently saying, “Not only do I, Jenny Ta, believe a dollar is imminent … but I also believe that DOGE will hit a trillion-dollar market cap,” as Ta did on her May 21 Benzinga appearance.
I think at this point, it’s become fairly clear that no one knows where Bitcoin or Dogecoin or any of the cryptocurrencies are going. If we did, we’d be emptying our bank accounts.
I’ve said it many times in 2021.
If you buy the cryptocurrencies that possess utility and not store-of-value, you’ll be the big winner in five to 10 years. Dogecoin, as it happens, possesses such utility.
As for when or if it hits $1 trillion in market cap, that’s above my pay grade.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.