Today’s note may come across as bearish toward Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). In reality it is not, because my only concern is with the shorter-term price action. The company is on rails, and so is NVDA stock. But it doesn’t trade in a vacuum, so we have to consider the big picture.
At these altitudes, it is vulnerable to sharp drops, and those could come from extrinsic reasons. With that in mind, let’s move on to evaluating what is going right now. Let’s also take a look at what could be better for NVDA moving forward.
Nvidia has been in a breakout since April from around $155 per share. Along the way it really took flight mid May when it rallied 50% in 50 days. NVDA stock recently broke out again. This time from $206 per share.
Committing new longs for an investment from here is less than obvious. Those who are in it for the momentum trade are fine. I only worry about investors looking to initiate new, sizable positions.
At the risk of sounding repetitive and somewhat bearish, I would wait it out a few days. This is an incredible company, but I still would rather find proper entry points. Traditionally, long-term investors say that they don’t try to time the market. If that’s true, then waiting it out is just as logical as jumping in. Why not err on the side of caution with Nvidia stock?
The macroeconomic conditions are unique. Wall Street has never gone through these circumstances before. We’ve rallied so long that the mathematical downside potential is much larger than the upside opportunity. One hiccup can turn into a serious crash. I am confident that we will have better entry points than up here. Missing out on a few upside bucks is a small price to pay for caution.
NVDA Stock Is Up for Some Good Reasons
Now that the ugly part is out of the way, let’s talk about the good points. This company is firing on all cylinders and setting trends. It is one of three major chip suppliers and it’s reigning supreme. This year, NVDA stock is up three times more than Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD). Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is miles behind — that’s a whole other story.
This week, we learned that NVDA and AMD chips could wiggle their way into government super-computer applications. The reason? INTC is literally late delivering its offering.
However, from a fundamental perspective, the stock is expensive. The premium is not crazy, since investors are getting the growth they seek. Besides I don’t need it to be cheap at this stage, so that’s not the concern. But when I compare it to AMD, I see dislocations.
Since 2018, NVDA almost doubled its revenues and grew the net income 75%. Meanwhile, AMD more than doubled revenues and grew net income ten-fold. Clearly AMD has done more, and its financial metrics are twice as cheap compared to NVDA’s. It’s a better choice from that perspective.
The Beginning of the End of QE
Frankly, I would stay out of both unless I’m using options. There, I can sell puts to be long the stocks and leave a 30% buffer zone. Chasing markets at all-time highs with starter investment positions is wrong. Moreover, we are going into the end of a 3-year old QE program.
I don’t anticipate the Federal Reserve actively wanting to devastate markets. However, losing huge tailwinds could create a stall on Wall Street. The Jackson Hole Fed meeting is coming up, so that could also create short-term turbulence in NVDA stock. I think they will drag their feet until November to announce the taper.
Meanwhile, there are trading opportunities in Nvidia. My guess is that the markets are looking for the Fed event to pass, so they can rally more. Sharp dips are buy-able for an attempt at fast profits. However, this is different than the earlier discussion of long-term investments. This is where it’s important for us to know our objective — to trade or invest?
To be clear, my comments about waiting things out for better entries are for investors, not traders. Nvidia stock is a monster because the company is executing flawlessly. We can’t short such a scenario, so it’s a matter of finding an appropriate entry point for the long haul.
On the date of publication, Nicolas Chahine did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com.