The fascination with SPACs is dying out. They are no longer the conversation hogs that they were just a few months ago. Since late last week, market sentiment flipped bearish – and without specific reason. Meanwhile, the bulls are still in control judging from the charts. This is not true for prior stars like Opendoor (NASDAQ:OPEN) stock. It is now 57% off its all time high that it set in February.
Today we argue holding it for the long term because the opportunity is still viable. The real-estate market is still strong. And the digitization trend makes this company even more likely to succeed. Investor expectations may need some adjustment because it’s not a moonshot any more.
I wrote about OPEN stock was in early January and I suggested owning it. That trade delivered a fast 90% rally. Today I reiterate the same message as I did back then. The stock has had a few round trips, so it may be ready to settle into a pace. Therefore, the optimism is similar but for different reasons.
The Thesis Is Viable
Nothing has changed in the overall macroeconomic conditions. The Federal Reserve is on schedule to reduce its QE, but it is still bullish. They haven’t even started discussing a rate hike, so it’s years out. The taper shouldn’t affect the real-estate market much.
Meanwhile, the country is still enjoying the fruits of the multi-trillion dollar stimulus effort from the government. The reopening trade policy was extremely impressive. It will have lasting effects even after the taper starts.
The fundamentals for Opendoor are not as clear-cut as say for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock. OPEN still needs time to prove itself to Wall Street. Meanwhile, the short-term income statement is showing great progress. The quarterly revenues are increasing at exponential rates. However, it is still too early to call it a trend with only a few months worth of data.
Since the stock lacks the fundamentals to help support it, the bears have had their run with it. The mojo from Chamath Palihapitiya has faded as with almost all SPAC stocks. This doesn’t mean it is failing, but it has more to do with investor sentiment than a bad thesis. With a company this new, investors need to have patience. With time it will earn its street cred.
OPEN Stock Has Short-Term Opportunities
Meanwhile, active traders have the opportunity to profit from extreme interim movements. Management reported earnings in August and the stock spiked 30% on the headline. It quickly faded only to repeat the rally over the next few weeks. The bulls were able to breach the earnings high, but failed at levels that were in contention back in May.
September has not been good to Opendoor stock. It has, so far, lost 15% of its value but that’s part of normal price action. When a stock rallies 45% like it did in a month, giving back half is healthy. That’s how the stock ownership rolls out of the hands of weaker investors into ones with more conviction. The most important part now is to hold the bottom.
The bulls of OPEN stock have been able to defend the $15 zone successfully. That must continue through this fall season. In time, Wall Street will get more comfortable with it, so they’d be less likely to panic out. The road to riches with this stock is likely to have many sharp peaks and deep valleys. The best case scenario in the short term is a successful breach of the $20 per share level. When that happens, the bulls would have the opportunity to rally another $5 from there.
Meanwhile, the longer this bottoming process takes, the better the base. “V” recovery rallies tend to fade quickly. The investment thesis makes more sense when the buying happens with moderation. Volatility makes investors uneasy, so the calmer the price action in OPEN stock the better for the long term.
Be a Cliche
There is risk from external factors this month, to it is good to be cautiously optimistic. If the stock market corrects, it will drag all stocks with it. To help build a buffer, investors can use options. They offer strategies that would allow for some room for error.
For example, selling puts below current price instead of buying shares leaves leeway between current and entry price.
Nothing is foolproof, so taking full positions all at once is arrogant. When stock markets are near all-time highs and investors are nervous I must remain humble with my assumptions.
Conviction by default is medium at best.
On the date of publication, Nicolas Chahine did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com.
